Lawmakers left town.
Last Thursday was the final day Congress met until early January. And despite health care dominating the conversation on Capitol Hill since late summer and through the autumn, Congress failed to execute a legislative fix for soaring health care premiums set to spike in January.
It was a Congressional jailbreak around 3 pm et Thursday as the House called its last vote and lawmakers sprinted for the exits, piling into cars on the Capitol plaza.
“Don’t send us home without a vote,” implored House Minority Whip Katherine Clark, D-Mass., on the House steps earlier in the day.
“Our message to (House Speaker) Mike Johnson, R-La., is clear,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “You can run. But you cannot hide.”
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Lawmakers packed up for December, practically channeling partisans of the (once) hapless Chicago Cubs, declaring “Wait til next year.”
“I’m optimistic that we still have a chance to do better in 2026,” forecast Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio.
“I think before the end of January, we really do want to do something,” said Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D.
There’s a reason why 2026 is fundamentally different from 2025.
“It’s an election year,” observed Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo. “I think that Members of Congress are going to start hearing from their constituents.”
Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., beat former Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., by one point in 2024, flipping the district from blue to red. Last week, Mackenzie became one of four House Republicans who rebelled against top Republican leaders – and aligning with Democrats – to renew Obamacare subsidies.
The “Fed Up 4” signed what’s called a “discharge petition.” This is a maneuver to go around the Speaker and put a bill on the floor – if the Speaker won’t. Democrats pushed a discharge petition to re-up the expiring subsidies for three years. But they needed four Republicans to join them in their parliamentary guerilla tactic to take this out of the hands of the Speaker.
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“There is no silver bullet. If there was, either party would have done it,” said Mackenze.
When asked about the politics of this in his battleground district, Mackenzie replied that “we have a long way to go before the midterms.”
Discharge petitions don’t ripen for a vote immediately. The House must wait seven legislative days before consideration. The House is out until January 6, 2027. After two days to trigger the discharge petition, the House may consider this maneuver around January 8 or 9.
But even one top House Republican believes this coalition of Democrats and few Republicans will succeed in January.
“My gut tells me that the COVID era subsidies, because we had the four members of the House sign onto that discharge petition, that it probably will pass,” predicted House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-MI) on Fox Business.
But the Senate blocked a similar plan earlier this month. That’s why Democrats are skeptical that Congress can fix the problem once premiums explode in the new year.
“Huge damage has already been done. And nothing we do after January 1st can undo so much of that damage,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.
Some Republicans advocate a complete legislative overhaul of health care next year.
“What is different, though, about 2026 on health care compared to 2025 about health care? Why does this suddenly change?” yours truly asked Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.
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“There won’t be anything different if you keep doing the same old thing. So that’s the point,” said Graham.
But he added that there was a “deal to be had” on health care.
Only a bipartisan health care bill can overcome a Senate filibuster. That’s why the Senate nuked separate Democratic and Republican plans a few weeks ago. Some Republicans are now advocating going it alone on health care next year. They can do that – if they use a special budget process called “reconciliation.” Via reconciliation, senators can pass a bill with just a simple majority. But the measure must be budget neutral over a decade and just pertain to fiscal policy.
Some Republicans prefer this path. They believe President Trump would sign a partisan bill.
“The only way for us to be able to lower the cost of health care is to do another reconciliation bill,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), referring to the mechanism the GOP used to pass the Big Beautiful Bill. Democrats also deployed reconciliation to pass Obamacare.
“For the life of me, I cannot figure out why my friend (Senate Majority Leader John) Thune, R-S.D., will not agree to do another reconciliation bill,” continued Kennedy. “Why would you give up the chance to put together a sound social and economic policy when you only need 51 votes to do it.? Why would you give that up?”
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) agrees with Kennedy. He believes Democrats prefer to have health care as an issue in 2026 – and not actually address the problems.
“They’re an obstruction party. They despise President Trump,” said Schmitt of the Democrats. “We have majorities. We should use them.”
But that’s the problem. Congressional Republicans have never coalesced around a health care plan which can pass both bodies. Even with their majorities. It didn’t happen in 2017. It’s doubtful that can happen now.
So lawmakers aren’t passing out presents at the holidays. They’re dishing out blame.
“Because of Republicans, it is now impossible, sadly, to prevent people from having to pay hundreds, if not thousands more on their premiums next year,” said Schumer.
“The Democrats do not want a solution,” said Johnson. “They want a campaign talking point.”
So Democrats and Republicans alike abandoned the Capitol for the holidays without voting on a subsidy extension.
“House Republicans have chosen to get out of town before sundown. And that’s a shame,” said Jeffries.
But a few Republicans unloaded on Jeffries.
“What we have seen is Leader Jeffries withholding his votes from the bipartisan efforts. He actually held his Members back,” accused Mackenzie.
Democrats wouldn’t fund the government this fall in their quest to renew the Obamacare credits. Another funding deadline awaits on January 30. Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., doubted Democrats would revert to their health care demand ahead of this funding cycle.
“It’s a different time frame,” said Welch.
We’ll know soon enough. Spending bills still aren’t ready. The Senate tried to advance a batch of them last week – but ran into opposition.
Remember that several Senate Democrats helped end the government shutdown by securing an agreement with Thune to hold a vote on health care. Well, they got their vote. But that didn’t fix anything.
So there will be a vote on health care via the health care discharge petition in January. But a House vote does not mean passage. And it doesn’t mean adoption in the Senate.
It’s just a vote.
As McClain forecasts, this may pass. But what about the Senate?
Wait til next year.
We’ll know in early 2026.
