Imagine a boxing match.
A boxing match may only go a few rounds. But it’s a big production. There’s a massive buildup for weeks in the press. There’s the weigh-in. Both fighters enter the ring to fanfare. Everyone scans the crowd to see “who” is there or nabbed seats close to the ring. Celebrities. Actors. Musicians. Models. Other famous athletes.
There’s a lot to see.
And that’s why the president’s State of the Union speech is similar.
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Yeah, there’s the speech. But there’s a lot more on which to focus when President Donald Trump delivers his State of the Union address on Tuesday night. It may range from what “trunks” the fighters wear when they enter the ring to who is serving as their cornermen.
Do you train your attention on the speech itself and what the president says? Does he deliver a stemwinder of an address, veering off into any number of political tributaries and addressing countless grievances? Do you observe the delivery of a president who maintains a mostly loyal MAGA base but struggles with soaring disapproval ratings? What about the presence of Supreme Court justices who ruled against the president last week on tariffs, one of the most seminal issues of his administration? How about his push to double down on tariff policies, despite the decision by the High Court? We haven’t even discussed what the president may say about ICE, unrest in the Twin Cities, the stalemate over funding for the Department of Homeland Security. And that’s to say nothing about the possibility of invading Iran or new questions emerging about Greenland.
This is just an incomplete list regarding the speech. But State of the Union messages are now laced with theater and performance. It extends well beyond what the president may say or do. Lawmakers were practically props a few decades ago, applauding and cheering when they heard the president tout a policy or achievement they endorsed. Or, sitting silently if something came up which they opposed.
Now, State of the Union is a participatory if not contact sport. The president’s most ardent opponents are expected to make noise, heckle, boo, shout or even upbraid the president. Think of the iconic photo depicting Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, waving his cane at Trump before House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., banished him from the address last year. Or former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., and Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., on their feet, jeering former President Joe Biden a few years ago.
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Tuesday night will serve as a test for congressional decorum. Expect outbursts and shouted retorts. But we’ll see if anyone raises – or lowers – the bar when it comes to their conduct compared to Johnson bouncing Green from the chamber last year.
Then there’s the old “look who I brought” to the speech watch. Democrats may gravitate toward pillars of their community, local heroes or those wronged by ICE. Republicans may bring along local law enforcement officials helpful toward the detention and deportment of those in the country illegally. Or the relatives of those harmed by illegal immigrants.
There’s also a question of whether some lawmakers will show up.
Some Republicans representing vulnerable districts or competitive states may skip out to build distance between themselves and the largely unpopular president. Meantime, a growing number of Democrats plan to attend an alternative to the president’s address. They are eschewing the speech in exchange for what they call the “People’s State of the Union” on the National Mall.
Some Democrats may pull double duty.
One wonders if some lawmakers — of both parties — will use travel issues posed by the East Coast blizzard as a convenient excuse to skip out.
Someone who might not skip out: former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. The House expelled Santos in late 2023. Only the sixth member ever kicked out of the House. But as a former member, Santos still has privileges to come and go from the Capitol as he wants. So Santos showed up for Biden’s State of the Union in 2024. Santos pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identity theft in 2024. But Trump commuted Santos’ sentence last fall.
And then there is who reacts to Trump. Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, delivers the official Democratic response. She’s a moderate former congresswoman who prevailed last fall by campaigning on “affordability.” Republicans will focus on Spanberger and plans to redraw House districts in Virginia to offset prospective gains by GOPers through redistricting — at the president’s behest — in Texas.
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Three other prominent Virginians have delivered rebuttals to State of the Union messages in recent years.
Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., was Virginia’s governor when he responded to President George W. Bush in 2006. Democrats drafted Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., to deliver the response to Bush’s 2007 speech. Republicans tapped Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell to speak after Obama’s 2010 oratory. Most responses to presidential State of the Union addresses either don’t go well or are barely remembered. It may be noteworthy if Spanberger hacks through the noise at all and people remember anything from her presentation.
Sen. Alex Padilla, D-Calif., will deliver the Democrats’ response in Spanish. This will be Padilla’s highest-profile moment since guards protecting Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem threw the senator to the ground when he interrupted her remarks about ICE during a news conference in Los Angeles in June.
The president will be on screen most of the time during the speech. But the two men who likely rival Trump for screentime are Johnson and Vice President JD Vance. Or at least their torsos will as they’re half visible in the frame, sitting above Trump on the House dais. Johnson will run the show, as he is speaker of the House. Vance is there in his capacity as president of the Senate. Both are seated directly behind the president.
Johnson owes much of his viability as speaker to Trump. And Vance’s viability as a potential 2028 presidential candidate may hinge on the president as well. Reporting emerged this week that Trump is questioning advisors about who should carry the MAGA torch after he leaves office: Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio will appear in the chamber as part of the president’s Cabinet. The network pool feed will inevitably grab shots of Rubio when Trump discusses the January raid in Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, the future of NATO or the U.S.’ relationship with Canada. But Vance will be in the picture — literally — most of the night. Viewers are sure to watch for Vance’s demeanor. Commentators will dissect and parse various reactions and body language of the vice president. And everyone will hear whether he namechecks Vance or Rubio during his remarks.
Lots to see. Lots to examine. Lots to debate. But State of the Union addresses are not what they were. We see the president all the time. Be it on TV. Social media. Memes. Presidential messages and their impacts were curated differently not that long ago. People didn’t see or hear from the president very often. Today, the public hears from this president, in particular, all the time. So that alone diminishes the impact of such a speech.
Still, this is the annual televised boxing match of American politics. Everyone will “score” which side landed blows. Who won which round? And, how badly one side or the other bludgeoned their opponent.
But we enter the arena on a daily basis in politics and not just once a year. Every day is a slugfest evaluated by the public. And while it remains a big day on the annual political calendar, State of the Union may have shrunk in its impact.
Today’s politics feature a daily undercard bout. And the public is usually obsessed with social media, watching for TKOs.
