Lone wolf attackers inspired by extremist ideologies pose the most likely terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland, according to the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
The 34-page document was released by Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard Wednesday. She testified at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats alongside other key military and Trump administration officials.
The 2025 threat assessment similarly warned that terrorist threats to the U.S. increasingly come from individuals acting alone or in small groups.
The new report says ISIS and al Qaeda remain intent on targeting the United States, but their ability to plan and execute complex attacks has been significantly degraded over time.
Officials warn that individuals radicalized online are increasingly carrying out or attempting attacks with little direction, often using simple tactics and requiring minimal coordination.
“Jihadist narratives that address personal grievances may be attractive to individuals seeking validation of violent desires or moral clarity, even if they lack familiarity with Islam. Such content normalizes intolerance of other beliefs and persons and attracts followers to Islamism,” the threat report states.
“Anti-Western and anti-Semitic narratives probably influence Muslim youths facing integration challenges or who are disaffected by the West’s role abroad, including with the Israel–HAMAS conflict.”
It notes that al Qaeda and ISIS have expanded in recent years primarily through local conflicts in Africa, where some of their largest and most violent affiliates are now based.
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The intelligence community is continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East, particularly how the terrorism landscape may evolve after Operation Epic Fury, according to the assessment.
DNI Gabbard told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that stricter border enforcement has helped limit terrorist access to the U.S. and lowered the risk of potential attacks.
“Since January, U.S. officials have only had a handful of encounters at our borders with individuals associated with terrorist groups. This is a positive trend,” she said. “However, our Interagency coordinated efforts to continue to identify, locate and remove known or suspected terrorists who may already be in the United States continues with vigilance.
“In 2025, there were at least three Islamist terrorist attacks in the United States. Law enforcement disrupted at least 15 U.S.-based Islamist terrorist plotters. Roughly half of last year’s disrupted plotters had some online contact with Islamist terrorists.”
