March Madness brackets are consuming households across America, but with the expanded legalization of sports gambling, more and more wagers are being placed on the tournament games.
The tournament is the only thing that could compete with the Super Bowl in terms of gambling, with 32 games being played on the court and each of them being watched by millions all over the country.
Picking upsets in brackets is stressful enough — you know they will happen, but you just don’t know which ones. But picking all of them on a sportsbook might actually be beneficial.
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Since 2008, 12-seeds are 28-40 against No. 5 seeds — that .410 winning percentage certainly is not bad for teams that are normally underdogs of nearly double digits. Combine that with No. 11 seeds going nearly .500 (37-39) in the first round since 2006, and bettors may have cashed in, even if their brackets were busted.
“That’s where you take shots and that’s where, you know, the upsets have occurred,” Johnny Avello, an oddsmaker at DraftKings, told Fox News Digital in a recent interview.
Since 2019, 10-seeds are also 10-13 against 7-seeds, with one 7-seed advancing because of COVID-19 in 2021. In the last nine tournaments dating back to 2016, No. 9 seeds are 22-14 against No. 8 seeds, with the No. 8 team winning the majority of the games just twice in that span.
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Because of these trends, Avello has seen several lower seeds shrink their point spreads, including No. 11 South Florida against No. 6 Louisville (7- to 5-point underdogs) and No. 12 High Point against No. 5 Wisconsin (12.5 to 9.5). No. 12 Akron has also gone from 9.5-point underdogs to 7.5 against No. 5 Texas Tech.
Now, while some may want to go big or go home with some Nos. 13-16 seeds (kudos to those who bet on UMBC in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023), it may not be wise. In fact, Avello said lots of bettors go heavy on the favorites in those matchups.
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Avello opened No. 2 Purdue (who lost to the aforementioned FDU) as 23-point favorites against Queens, but that spread is now up to 25. No. 2 Iowa State went from 23.5- to 25.5-point favorites against No. 15 Tennessee State, while No. 3 Gonzaga also saw its spread against Kennesaw State go from 18.5 to 20.5.
Texas Tech remains the smallest five-seed favorite, but Vanderbilt and St. John’s stand at -11.5 against McNeese State and Northern Iowa, respectively. For context, the largest spread in a 5-12 matchup last year was Clemson at 7.5 against McNeese, who pulled off the upset. Two other five-seeds sat at -2.5.
And for what it’s worth, two No. 13 seeds were single-digit favorites last year, but this year they are all favored to win by double digits.
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