A former Obama advisor outlined a “worst-case scenario” in the Middle East, warning Iran could escalate with attacks on key energy facilities in the Gulf as President Donald Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade tightens pressure on the regime.
“The worst-case scenario… is they decide, ‘Ok, if we can’t export our oil now and can’t generate revenue, we will attack the most sensitive targets among the Gulf states. We’ll go after their oil facilities as a way of putting pressure back on the United States to ease this on us,'” Dennis Ross said Sunday.
Ross warned the U.S. must be prepared to defend against potential Iranian retaliation targeting vulnerable, high-value energy infrastructure across Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
Such strikes, he said, could temporarily cripple oil production and risk escalating the conflict if not effectively deterred.
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“This thing can spin out of control unless we’re capable enough of preventing that,” he added.
Ross said the regime would stop short of destroying its own facilities on Kharg Island, a key energy resource that has been a focal point of the Trump administration’s campaign in the region, telling “Fox & Friends Weekend” that the oil export hub is something Iran “need[s] to be able to hold.”
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“They’ll go after everything that’s in the Gulf states…” Ross said. “Our blockading is an alternative to us seizing Kharg Island. We can seize it, but then our forces there would be quite vulnerable. This is a much smarter move than seizing Kharg Island.”
Trump announced an “all-or-nothing” blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday morning, stressing during a Fox News exclusive interview that every country would either be allowed full access through the waterway or none at all, with no exceptions for allies.
“We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade,” he told “Sunday Morning Futures.”
The decision followed unsuccessful peace talks with Iranian regime leaders in Pakistan over the weekend.
