Maybe it was a political thing, but the PGA TOUR returns to the Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster course for the first time since 2016 for this week’s 2026 Cadillac Championship. I don’t know what happened from 2016-25 that caused the TOUR to leave Doral, but I digress.
Anyway, despite being a “signature event” with a $20 million prize pool, several big names aren’t in the field this week, including World No. 2 Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Robert MacIntyre and Patrick Cantlay.
Doral’s Blue Monster is one of the most demanding tests in golf. A par-72 that stretches 7,739 yards, the Blue Monster is a major-level test, famous for its tricky green complexes, deep bunkering and water danger all over the course.
That said, I’ve allocated 2.64 units (u) on outrights for the Cadillac Championship, and another 2.5u on top-10s with ties, all via Kalshi. Without further ado, here are my horses for the course and One-And-Done pick for the Blue Monster.
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
If he were 100%, Collin would be around the same odds as the second-betting favorite, Cameron Young (+1200 ish). Morikawa withdrew at THE PLAYERS Championship last month after his first hole and has been playing hurt ever since.
Yet, I’m willing to gamble on Collin’s health because he is first on all of my models for the Cadillac, and finished T7 at The Masters and T4 at the RBC Heritage in his previous two starts, while clearly playing through an injury.
Before that, Morikawa won at the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tied for seventh at The Genesis Invitational and finished fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, which is similar to Doral.
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Plus, with the PGA Championship in two weeks, Collin wouldn’t be playing this week if he thought he could further injure himself. He is one of the most accurate drivers in golf and leads the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) this year, which is the most predictive stat in golf.
Doral is one of the longest courses on TOUR with Bermudagrass greens, and Burns is 11th in this field in Ball Speed over the last three months and second in SG: Putting over his last 50 rounds on Bermuda, according to Betsperts Golf.
Because he hits the ball hard and is a top-three putter in the world, Burns plays well at long, difficult golf courses with strong fields. He was in contention entering the final round at the 2025 U.S. Open and The Masters this year, finishing T7 in both.
Burns has great lead-in form with a T13 at THE PLAYERS, T21 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, the aforementioned T7 at The Masters and T16 at the RBC Heritage in his four previous starts. He’s gained strokes with his irons and driver in three of those four tournaments, and on the greens in all four.
This is just a great price for my favorite golfer, who is a proven winner. Hideki is below several guys on the odds board with a lot less “win equity”.
Many former Masters champions have played well at Doral, and Matsuyama won a green jacket in 2021. Riviera Country Club, host of The Genesis, is another crossover course to Doral, and Hideki won The Genesis in 2023.
Matsuyama won the 2023 FedExCup St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, another course with Bermuda greens and abundant water hazards. His weakest club in the bag is the driver, but Hideki is one of the best on TOUR with his long irons, has a world-class short-game, and is putting well this season.
The Aussie was the last champion at Doral, winning the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship. But, I swear, that is not why Scott is on my betting card this year.
Rather, the 45-year-old is hitting the ball faster than most of the young guns on the PGA TOUR. In fact, he is sixth in this field for Ball Speed over the last three months, according to Betsperts Golf.
Meanwhile, Scott ranks third on TOUR this season in SG: APP, fourth in approach shots from 200+ yards and 10th in par 5 scoring. There are a ton of long approach shots at Doral, and you need to beat up on the par 5s to win here.
Again, Bay Hill is a comp course to Doral, and Berger lost to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff at the Arnold Palmer. It was a heartbreaking loss for Berger, so I’m overlooking his weak performances in his previous three starts because of the huge odds and the course fit.
Berger is a Florida Man who putts well on these local Bermuda greens, and he is one of the best ball-strikers on TOUR. Two of his four career PGA TOUR wins are the St. Jude in 2016-17, and Berger has several top-10s in Florida and at similar courses.
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2026 Mayo Cup Season Standings: 3,814th with $3,055,975
Even though he’s the third-betting favorite, this is a “contrarian play”. Only 47% of the entrants still have Morikawa available. Collin has an injury hanging over his head. Since the Blue Monster is massive, and he is not long off the tee, people will choose bombers instead.
However, Morikawa is pretty much the best ball-striker on the planet right now and a two-time major champion, who’s won at tough courses. I’d rather use Collin in this shortened field while he is in good form than force him somewhere else.
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