For all the coverage of the Mike Vrabel and Dianna Russini scandal, hardly anyone has discussed the possible implications on the football field.
History already suggests that the New England Patriots face an uphill battle entering the season. There is perhaps no harder position to enter the year than as the Super Bowl runner-up. Here is how the past three have fared the following season:
Kansas City Chiefs, 2025-26: 6-11, missed the playoffs
San Francisco 49ers, 2024-25: 6-11, missed the playoffs
Philadelphia Eagles, 2023-24: lost six of their last seven games and lost in the Wild Card Round
The Patriots also face the sixth-hardest schedule this upcoming season. Last year, they played the easiest schedule, in terms of opponent combined win percentage, by any team since the 1999 Rams, en route to the Super Bowl.
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Part of the Super Bowl loss hangover, as it is often called, is its impact on the locker room. Advancing to the Super Bowl requires significant mental and physical sacrifice. It is hard to rebuild that energy after the deflation of going that far only to lose.
Players and coaches can also tend to point fingers and distribute blame. Such friction is even more likely for a team like New England that lost 29-13 and never felt competitive against Seattle.
Now add in that the same locker room must also overcome the biggest story in the NFL this offseason: their coach’s alleged affair with Dianna Russini.
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Vrabel talked last season about how the team minimized the outside noise and held each other accountable, beginning during OTAs in May. That will be harder to do in a few weeks, given the circus surrounding their head coach.
As OutKick discussed this week, the intensity of the story is now so high that it is no longer certain Vrabel will make it to training camp.
Matt Cannata, CEO of Pro Football & Sports Network, predicted Tuesday that the scandal could lead to Vrabel’s resignation or a leave of absence.
“As someone who used to work in public relations and often dealt with crisis communications, I see this whole Russini-Vrabel affair resulting in Vrabel resigning,” Cannata posted on X. “It is going to be hit after hit after hit, and then there will be one bombshell that makes it all spill over the top.”
Consider how small the margins are in the NFL. Most marquee games are decided by just a few points. Every bit of preparation and focus matters. Chiefs coach Andy Reid talked about how lessons learned early in training camp played a role in the team’s back-to-back Super Bowl wins in 2023 and 2024.
Odds are that scrutiny of the scandal will wear on Vrabel and the team. He and Russini are now a topic on cable news programming. Even after the story fades from public view, Vrabel may still have to deal with fallout in his personal life. The matter already caused Vrabel to miss the third day of the NFL Draft last week for “counseling.”
What’s more, the Patriots exceeded expectations last season under Vrabel’s leadership. He kept Stefon Diggs out of trouble (until late in the season) and focused on football. The Patriots are also expected to trade for AJ Brown, a wide receiver known as much for his sideline frustrations and off-field antics as his production.
Vrabel will have a much harder time commanding the respect of a locker room full of young men after seeing him hugging and holding hands with a female reporter while his wife and children were away.
The Patriots are currently favored to exceed 9.5 wins on DraftKings. We would take the under. The schedule, the hangover and the scandal are a lot to overcome.
A down season would be particularly troubling for Vrabel. It is one thing to make national headlines after a trip to the Super Bowl. It is entirely different to follow up that chaos with a disappointing season.
