The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) look to punch their ticket to the Western Conference Finals when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-3) at the Target Center Friday for Game 6.
San Antonio crushed Minnesota in a pivotal Game 5, 126-97, to take control of the series. Victor Wembanyama got revenge for getting tossed in the first half of Game 4 for elbowing T-Wolves big Naz Reid Tuesday. Wembanyama had game-highs in points (27) and rebounds (17) in Game 5.
Timberwolves All-Star Anthony Edwards has been fantastic while playing through injury in this series. Ant-Man is averaging a team-high 23.6 points in this series on 50.6% shooting and 40.0% from behind the arc. His teammates, on the other hand, not so much.
I’ll get into that below as part of my betting analysis for Spurs-Timberwolves Game 6.
There are two reasons why I’m betting San Antonio to wrap this series up Friday and cover the spread. First, Edwards doesn’t have enough help. Second, the only games the Spurs have lost in this series are when either Wemby has played terribly or gotten thrown out of the game.
This is a horrible matchup for Minnesota’s second-leading scorer during the regular season, PF Julius Randle. When Wembanyama is on the floor, it’s nearly impossible for Randle to attack the basket. Julius is averaging just 14.8 points in this series on 45.4% true shooting (.366/.211/.750).
He can’t create off the dribble either when San Antonio wing Stephon Castle guards him. Castle is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and it’s much easier to play defense when you have Wemby protecting the rim.
Meanwhile, Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert is pretty much useless in this series offensively. He is a bad outside shooter and can’t pull Wembanyama out of the paint. Not that it wouldn’t matter anyway. Wembanyama is clearly in Gobert’s head because he is even smoking layups in this series.
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This brings me back to my second pro-Spurs factor: the best basketball player in the world, Wembanyama. San Antonio lost the series opener 104-102 because Wemby was awful. He scored just 11 points and went 0-for-8 from 3-point range.
Then the Spurs lost Game 4 mostly because Wembanyama got that flagrant two. Otherwise, he has a +25 net rating in this series and Minnesota looks helpless when Wemby is on the floor.
Ultimately, San Antonio and Wembanyama are too big and athletic for the T-Wolves.
Prediction: Spurs 111, Timberwolves 99
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