Over the past several days, two Republican thorns in President Donald Trump’s side, in the form of Sen. Bill Cassidy, of Louisiana, and Rep. Thomas Massie, of Kentucky, have been ousted in their primaries by GOP voters and by very healthy margins. But this is about much more than Trump.
All over the country, the animating issue for most Republican voters I talk to is rather simple. They say, “We gave the party the House, the Senate, and the White House, so why can’t popular legislation like the Save America Act, pass?”
In other words, what is the point of electing Republicans if they won’t do anything?
The carnage among incumbents thus far is severe and historic. It wasn’t just Cassidy getting trounced. His GOP Senate colleague John Cornyn of Texas, also appeared on the verge of defeat, even before Trump endorsed his opponent, Ken Paxton, on Tuesday. And longtime anti-Trumper Mitch McConnell has retired from politics, likely leaving his seat to a Trump-endorsed candidate.
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To put this in perspective, since 1950, the only time a party has lost more than one sitting senator to a primary challenge was the Democrats in 1980, with three, and boy, was that a bad year for them.
In Massie’s case, he went from regularly winning primaries by 50 plus points to a humiliating 10-point loss. It turns out Kentucky voters cared more about passing laws than they did about anti-Israel conspiracy theories.
Meanwhile, in Texas, the often cranky and cantankerous Rep. Dan Crenshaw was given his electoral pink slip, after years as a popular and big-name figure, and this was without Trump endorsing in the race.
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In Indiana, a slate of longtime state representatives lost their GOP primary battles for failing to aggressively redistrict their state to Republican advantage.
Even incumbents who have the all-important endorsement of Trump are getting a sobering message from voters.
In West Virginia last week, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito won her non-competive primary against a no-name challenger with 66% of the vote. That may sound good, but in 2020, as an incumbent, she garnered a whopping 83%. She dropped 20 points notwithstanding her non-stop ads about her Trump endorsement.
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There is a political earthquake going on with GOP voters, but the party’s leadership, especially in the Senate, may as well be in a hot air balloon, admiring the view, not feeling the trembles turn to torrents.
It is worth noting that the incumbents who are going down are from all over the spectrum of conservative politics. Sure, Cornyn and Cassidy can be called RINOs, but Massie can’t, and it shows voter frustration is not ideological, it’s practical.
GOP voters do not want to hear about their elected officials’ principles or purity, they want to know why nothing is getting done besides the odd reconciliation bill.
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Take Cornyn. When his primary went to a runoff against Paxton, Trump was clear as day that he would endorse Cornyn if the Senate nuked the filibuster and fumbled.
Is it any wonder that Republican voters are taking their anger to the primary voting booth? With GOP control of Congress, the White House, and a conservative Supreme Court, when will there ever be better conditions to achieve the voters’ priorities?
How many elections do Republicans need to win before they can actually govern?
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The problem with the conventional wisdom that this CVS receipt of GOP primary losses is all down to Trump’s power is that it erases the voice of the voter. Trump is listening to that voice, not commanding it.
There are many in the Republican establishment who have been waiting Trump out in hopeful expectation that once his grip on voters is term-limited out, they will become quiet country club conservatives again. Fat chance.
The 2026 midterm has now become an anti-inumbent insurgency from Republican voters that can be spoken of in the same breath as the Tea Party, and it will go far to determining what a post-Trump GOP looks like.
Trump is the most important political figure in American politics, but he is not the sun, the moon and the stars. The voters are, and it is by their lights that the president navigates the ship of state.
The message to the remaining Republican incumbents this cycle is clear: Don’t tell us your philosophy and don’t spar with the president. Just tell us what you are going to get done, and how.
