“No days (weeks) off” is my mantra when it comes to betting on the PGA TOUR. And man, you have to be a golf gambling sicko to bet THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas this week.
If it weren’t for native Texans Scottie Scheffler (reigning Byron Nelson champion) and Jordan Spieth wanting to play in their home state, this field would be brutal.
Out of embarrassment, because Scottie won last year’s Byron Nelson by eight shots, with a -31, millions of dollars worth of renovations were invested into TPC Craig Ranch this offseason to make the course harder.
The fairways are now Zoysiagrass, the rough is Bermudagrass and the greens have Bentgrass. Bermuda is the trickiest grass to hit out of and the ball sits up on Zoysiagrass. So, there is a bigger penalty for missing the fairway this week. Bent greens are firmer and faster, which makes putting tougher.
That said, the average winning score over the last Byron Nelsons is roughly -26 and this will still be a birdie-fest. With that in mind, I’m not wasting units (u) on placement bets since this event is so volatile. Here are my best bets for TPC Craig Ranch this week.
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
A native Longhorn and University of Texas alum, Coody has to be familiar with playing in the windy, hot Texas weather conditions. He looked great at the beginning of the season, struggled in March and started picking it back up in April and May.
Coody didn’t qualify for The Masters, but he finished T16 at the 2026 RBC Heritage, T38 at the Cadillac Championship and T24 at the Truist Championship, all signature events.
Granted, Coody did miss the cut at last week’s PGA Championship. However, he was 14th in the field in putting in the first two rounds and Aronimink Golf Club (host of the 2026 PGA Championship) has Bent greens, like TPC Craig Ranch.
Last year, Coody was second in the Byron Nelson in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-tee (OTT) while finishing T25 with a -14. This season, he ranks 22nd on TOUR in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 200+ yards.
If he combines this year’s long-iron play with his driving at TPC Craig Ranch and last week’s putting in the PGA Championship, Coody will be in the mix to win the 2026 Byron Nelson.
I’ve lost so much money on this kid, but I’m not losing faith in his potential and these are great odds relative to the field strength and his prices at previous tournaments.
The 2024 PGA TOUR University valedictorian had the shorter odds to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (+4000), a signature event featuring the best players on TOUR, and the Texas Children’s Houston Open (+3000), which also had a tougher field.
He was T33 at last year’s Byron Nelson and gained strokes ball-striking (driving and approach). Over the last 20 rounds, Thorbjornsen is 10th on my model at Bet The Number because he nukes the ball OTT and is great with his long irons.
The Georgia Bulldog hasn’t qualified for the majors or signature events, so he’s been “out of sight, out of mind”. Thompson has finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T13 at the Myrtle Beach Classic in his last two starts.
Over his last 16 rounds, Davis is third in this field for SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G), behind Scheffler and the fourth-betting favorite, Brooks Koepka, according to Betsperts Golf.
Thompson might be someone to bet when he has good lead-in form because Davis finished T9 at the 2022 U.S. Open and T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his two starts before winning the John Deere Classic that year.
Like the Byron Nelson, the John Deere is played at another easy TPC course. At the end of the day, I clicked Thompson because he is just 26 years old and a flusher, who I still believe has a bright future in golf.
This is another talented golfer whom I’m “buying the dip” on. Kim has 10 professional wins, including three on the PGA TOUR, and has contended in big-boy events and majors. He is only 23 years old and I’m not ready to give up on him.
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The South Korean finished T6 at Myrtle Beach in his last start and T18 at the Valspar Championship four starts back. Despite struggling over the last two seasons, Kim is still elite with his irons and accurate with his driver.
Brennan is third in my model at Betsperts Golf. He ranks third in driving distance on TOUR this year and sixth in approach shots from 200+ yards. Brennan has gained strokes with his driver in five straight starts, including one signature event (RBC Heritage) and two majors (The Masters and PGA Championship).
The Wake Forest Demon Deacon burst onto the scene during the 2025 FedExCup Fall swing by winning the Bank of Utah Championship by four strokes at another easy, driver-heavy Tom Weiskopf course with Bent greens. Brennan hasn’t been in the mix since, but this is a great price and course fit.
The price (234-to-1) pretty much explains the bet. Vegas is a four-time winner on TOUR and showed some life at last week’s PGA Championship, where he was second in the field in SG: T2G. Unfortunately, Vegas lost the most strokes putting (-7.62) and finished T44.
Nevertheless, one of his four wins was the 3M Open in 2024 at another easy, driver-heavy TPC course (Twin Cities). Vegas’s best finish this year is a T14 in the Houston Open and his third-best finish last season was T13 at the Byron Nelson.
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At this point, I’m playing for honor, because barring a crazy heater, my hopes of making money in this racket are over. “Contest strategy” and “contrarian plays” don’t even matter anymore. I say this because I’m taking Coody here, even though he will be popular this week.
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