Another day, another great schedule of World Cup futbol. I suppose I can call it soccer, considering it is being hosted mostly in America. Though I don’t understand all of the rules of soccer, it has been fun watching. Similar to the World Baseball Classic and Olympics, when every country cares, the games are just more exciting. The USA is not known for being a soccer country, but we’re all behind the Men’s team.
Yesterday I had a play in every game, and I’ll try to do that again. I lost as England allowed a goal to Congo, pushing the total over 2.5, but I was correct that England would score two or fewer. In the Belgium game, we hit both teams to score, and a +230 winner if you bet on the 90-minute draw. I was unable to get a winner for us in the USA game, as I bet on both teams scoring. Team USA won 2-0, and Bosnia-Herzegovina couldn’t score despite a terrible red card giving them a man advantage.
Spain vs. Austria
Spain is a fairly big favorite in this game. They are -360 on the three-way moneyline with a draw being the second option, which means Austria is highly unlikely to win the game. To emphasize this point, Spain is -1000 to qualify and advance, meaning that if it goes to extra time and penalty kicks, they are still very likely to win. In the Group Stage, Spain started with a disappointing draw against Cape Verde, then they had two wins over Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. Austria won their opening match against Jordan, then lost 2-0 to Argentina, and had a draw with Algeria. They don’t seem to be the most crisp team in the tournament. I do think that Spain has a great defense and it will remain their strength here. I think they shut out Austria, give me the under 0.5 team total.
Portugal vs. Croatia
Portugal is also a heavy favorite to advance, but at just -300, not quite as much of a favorite as Spain. Most of the conversation around Portugal that I’ve seen has been about Cristiano Ronaldo and him being a problem for the team. He has only scored in one of the three games, but did score twice in that game. Portugal hasn’t looked great in this tournament, either. They’ve played to two draws and one win. Croatia doesn’t have the same star power, but they did play well in the Group Stage. They lost 4-2 to England, but they beat Panama and Ghana. I think there are two options for this game. I think we should see over 2.5 goals, but I really don’t love the bet. Portugal hasn’t looked elite, so I could see this being a draw. I’ll put a smaller bet out there, but will play this to a draw at +280 for the 90 minutes.
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Switzerland vs. Algeria
This is the closest game on the slate in terms of lines for today’s slate. Switzerland is a -105 favorite to win, but those odds went down from -120, meaning that people think this should be a closer game. They started their World Cup campaign with a draw against Qatar before getting locked in and beating Bosnia-Herzegovina 4-1. Then, against Canada, they were able to win 2-1. Algeria went 1-1-1 for their three games. They lost 3-0 to Argentina, one of the best teams in the tournament. Then they beat Jordan 2-1, before getting a draw against Austria. Personally, I’m not seeing the love for Algeria. I think Switzerland is the better team. Algeria has been giving up goals to everyone. Maybe the Both Teams to Score bet at -125 is the best value, but I’ll take Switzerland to win in 90 minutes at -105.
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