The battle to control Congress always dominates midterm discussions, but should it?
More voters will elect a governor than a U.S. senator this year.
Among the key contests are what might be the GOP’s only flip opportunity, races that will show how key voter groups are responding to President Trump’s second term, and even a test for Democrats in the Northwest.
These elections could also decide which party holds a majority of governorships. More than half of the nation’s governors have been Republicans since 2010. But with Democrats currently holding 24 of the 50 offices, that advantage is two states away from disappearing.
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Here are the top races to watch this year.
Democrats have been going to war with each other over ideology, character, and electability all across the country this year – in Wisconsin, the party is fighting all three battles in one race.
At least seven notable candidates are vying for the nomination, including Democratic socialist and State Rep. Francesca Hong and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who lost a U.S. Senate race here four years ago.
This week, the primary got even messier. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez ended her run after discovering she was short hundreds of thousands of dollars, and nine days after suspending his run, county executive David Crowley got back in, touting an endorsement from sitting governor Tony Evers.
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Wisconsin is as competitive as it gets. It’s one of only two states that has voted for both parties for president and the Senate while also being run by governors from both parties during the Trump era (the other is Arizona).
While the Democrats figure out who their candidate is, Republicans have a clear frontrunner: U.S. House Rep. Tom Tiffany, who has Trump’s backing and $3 million in the bank.
It’s too early to say which party will have the edge in November. This state is a toss-up.
Iowa’s Senate race is a toss-up, as Tuesday’s Power Rankings revealed, but on the governor’s side, the Democrats have opened up quite a lead.
Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor who claims he’s not a fan of either party, had the support of 53% of voters in the latest Fox News Poll, nine points ahead of his Republican opponent, Zach Lahn, a local farmer.
Lahn was the surprise winner of his party’s primary after Trump endorsed a different candidate (the president has since endorsed Lahn), and appears to have consolidated his support with the GOP base.
But his support for the state’s six-week abortion ban and recent relocation from Kansas could be electoral liabilities.
Sand is raising more money than Lahn, and from more local donors.
It’s a highly competitive race, but it starts at Lean D.
In 2022, Republican Governor Joe Lombardo’s victory over a Democratic incumbent in Nevada was proof that Hispanic voters were drifting rightward.
Two years later, more confirmation, when the state voted for a Republican president for the first time in 20 years.
Now there are signs that those voters are unhappy with Trump: 69% said they disapproved of the president in Fox News’ June survey.
Lombardo is touting results on cutting business regulation, crime reduction, and new housing projects for working-class Nevadans.
He’ll face Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, who says voters with affordability and immigration concerns have Trump to blame.
It will be a close and expensive race. It’s a toss-up in this forecast.
Republicans’ best chance at flipping a state this year comes in Kansas, where Governor Laura Kelly can’t seek a third term.
Kelly is a rare species in American politics: she is one of only two Democratic governors serving in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024 (the other is Andy Beshear of Kentucky).
This year, leading Democrats include State Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, who have made affordability the center of their messages. Seven Republicans are in the race, including President of the Kansas Senate Ty Masterson, who picked up Trump’s endorsement in May.
Among the big issues in the Sunflower State? Kelly’s $4 billion deal to bring the Kansas City Chiefs across state lines, which Masterson and Corson support, but some Democrats have called a “scam.”
It’s a competitive race, but without their incumbency advantage, the Democrats are vulnerable. This is a Lean R race.
Finally, an eyebrow-raising race in the Northwest, where incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is in a more competitive race than she should be against Republican State Sen. Christine Drazan.
Oregon voted for Vice President Harris by 14 points in the last presidential election, and the state hasn’t voted for a Republican governor since 1982.
Kotek is in some trouble, though, as she defends her record on housing, education, and mental health services. According to local reports, the governor is far short of her goal of 36,000 new units per year, and the state has some of the worst education rankings in the country.
That has given Drazan an opening, and not for the first time: she came within 3.5 points of defeating Kotek in 2022 (though that race included a third-party candidate).
Partisanship should keep this state in Democratic hands. But not without a fight. It’s a Likely D race in this forecast.
