When a dominant modern dynasty experiences a sudden, injury-plagued collapse, determining whether it was a minor blip or the start of a decline becomes the paramount question for bettors. Few teams in the NFL find themselves under as unique a spotlight entering this season as the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs suffered a nightmare 2025 campaign, stumbling to a 6–11 record and missing the postseason for the first time since 2014. Kansas City showed flashes of its championship pedigree, stringing together hard-fought victories early in the fall. However, the team went a brutal 1–9 in one-score games, plagued by self-inflicted mistakes, road struggles, and a devastating six-game losing streak to close out the year. The tipping point arrived in Week 15 when Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending ACL tear. The season was over by that point anyway, but it put their hopes for this season in serious jeopardy.
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The front office focused on reloading the offense and retooling a depleted secondary. On offense, Kansas City made a splash in free agency by signing explosive running back Kenneth Walker III to a three-year deal, alongside re-signing cornerstone tight end Travis Kelce to a three-year extension and extending Mahomes through 2033. To address defensive depth, they added safety Alohi Gilman, defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, and cornerbacks Kader Kohou and Kaiir Elam, while bringing back L’Jarius Sneed on a one-year deal and picking up defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah.
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The additions did come with the sacrifice of some strong players. The secondary lost major pillars, as cornerback Trent McDuffie was traded to the Rams, and safety Bryan Cook signed with Cincinnati. The other pieces that left weren’t exactly overly significant with perhaps the exception of Isiah Pacheco and maybe Hollywood Brown.
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After years of a great offense, the team switched to a great defense. Now, they seem to have reinvested in their offense. The unit gains dynamic balance with the backfield addition of Kenneth Walker III alongside Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce in the passing attack. The primary variable remains Mahomes’ availability this season.
Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo’s front seven remains formidable, anchored by Chris Jones and Creed Humphrey controlling the line of scrimmage. It will be interesting to see where the secondary improves from last year’s issues. They don’t have superstar-level players, but Spagnuolo is known to make the most out of his teams.
The Chiefs are a public team. They have the most well-known quarterback and tight end in the game. They are also a well-coached squad. They went 6-11 last season and as mentioned, lost a lot of close games. This year, the books have them listed at 10.5 games, and I just don’t see them getting to 11. It is hard to count them out, but Mahomes is coming off an ACL tear, the team has a lot of changes, and the division has gotten better with the Chargers and Broncos both looking like better teams. I’m going to avoid anything on the Chiefs, but I’d take the under 10.5 on them if I had to play anything.
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