Somehow, there are just two weeks remaining in the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
Once again, this baseball season has shown how and why trying to predict it remains one of the most futile endeavors in sports. And that lack of predictability is even more apparent as several postseason races look set to come down to the last few games of the season.
The American League playoff race has several spots up for grabs, with teams hoping to avoid the wrong kind of history: becoming the first sub-.500 team to reach the postseason in a full season. While the Chicago White Sox have led the American League Central for most of the season, the Cleveland Guardians are just 1.5 games back with two games remaining in their series on Tuesday and Wednesday.
WITH ONE MONTH LEFT, AMERICAN LEAGUE TEAMS ARE HEADING TOWARDS AN EMBARRASSING, HISTORIC LOW
In the AL West, the Houston Astros are clinging to a one-game lead over the Texas Rangers at 75-75, though the teams don’t play each other the rest of the year. Then there’s the wild card race. The Guardians currently sit in the third wild card position at 76-75, but the Toronto Blue Jays, left for dead months ago, have clawed their way back into it, just one game back.
If the Rangers can’t catch the Astros, they’re still just 1.5 games back of the third wild-card spot. Even the 73-78 Baltimore Orioles are only three games behind Cleveland. Somehow.
So there are two teams competing for the AL Central, two teams competing for the AL West and four competing for the final wild card spot behind the Yankees and Red Sox. Those division races will also determine which team gets a first-round bye and who’s forced into a best-of-three wild card series. Cleveland, Chicago, Houston and Texas are all within just a few games of each other, meaning that the second and third seed might not be determined until the final weekend.
Hilariously, there are just five teams with a positive run differential in the AL, and one of them, the Tigers, is 71-79 and effectively eliminated.
On the NL side, there are just two teams fighting for the final wild card spot, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres. While the Padres have become baseball’s hottest team, Arizona’s still just 2.5 games behind. More importantly, those two teams play each other in the final series with the season tiebreaker up for grabs, meaning that the race may not be clinched until literally the last day of the year. Last game, two division rivals potentially playing for a postseason berth at Petco Park. A dream scenario for the league.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE OUTKICK SPORTS COVERAGE
Speaking of the west, while the Dodgers have clinched a postseason berth, they’re still battling with the Braves to clinch the second seed behind the runaway Milwaukee Brewers. And that bye might be even more important than it normally is, because the Dodgers are in trouble. Serious trouble.
While they’ve accumulated a tremendous amount of talent between their player development, fortuitous trades and their obviously large financial advantages, much of it is far from full strength heading into October. And it might cost them a chance at a three-peat.
THE CRAIG CARTON SHOW–UNFILTERED, UNAPOLOGETIC AND UNMISSABLE. DOWNLOAD HIS DAILY PODCAST NOW!
Shohei Ohtani is on the injured list for the first time as a Dodger, after dealing with knee and arm injuries for most of the season. Not only will he not be available to pitch in the playoffs, he won’t be eligible to return until the final weekend of the season. Freddie Freeman has been battling right knee soreness severe enough to keep him out of the lineup several times over the past week.
Andy Pages, who’s been one of the Dodgers most valuable players this season, fractured his hand on a hit by pitch several weeks ago and, while he’s started taking swings, has no set return date before the postseason. Then there’s Edwin Díaz. Díaz, who signed for $69 million in the offseason, went from a 1.63 ERA in 2025 to 11.85 in 2026. He went down for several months with an arm injury himself, only to return and look… worse.
One of the most expensive relief pitchers in baseball has seven saves and four blown saves, allowing a remarkable 37 baserunners and 18 runs in 13.2 innings. He’s back on the injured list, and just gave up five runs in a rehab appearance in the minor leagues. Edgardo Henriquez, who’s helped fill in for Díaz at the back end of the bullpen, has been outstanding over the last month.
SIGN UP FOR THE DAILY OUTKICK NEWSLETTER
Except he’s now hurt too, going on the injured list with back issues that will keep him out for the remainder of the regular season. Roki Sasaki too, had gone on the IL and was expected back this past weekend, only for manager Dave Roberts to say Tuesday that he won’t return until next week at the earliest.
It’s a testament to the Dodgers’ depth that they’re still a very good team, even with all these problems, and the promotion of top prospect Josue De Paula has already paid off. But these are very real and significant injury issues to key players, and the timeline to get them all back is compressed, to say the least.
Securing a first-round bye would give them a few extra days’ rest before starting the NLDS, but Ohtani, Pages, Diaz, Freeman, Henriquez and Sasaki may either not play again during the regular season or make only a few at-bats or a single appearance before the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are surging with a mostly healthy roster and baseball’s best run differential. They’ve also turned Brice Turang, Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers into elite offensive contributors. With the Dodgers taking on water and big-name players like Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker well below their career averages, might this be the Brewers’ year?
When they say you can’t predict baseball, this is why.
