Economic concerns and party loyalty are key factors shaping Iowa’s U.S. Senate matchup.
A Fox News statewide survey of Iowa likely voters finds Democrat Josh Turek with a two-point edge over Republican Ashley Hinson, 49% to 47%, well within the margin of error.
Among registered voters, Turek is ahead by 4 points, 50% to 46%. That also falls within the range of sampling error and has been unchanged since June.
The analysis below is based on likely voter results.
Democrats are more unified behind state representative Turek (96%) than Republicans are of current Congresswoman Hinson (87%). Independents favor Turek by two-to-one, and 10% of Republicans back him. It’s Iowa’s partisan structure that keeps the race tight, as more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats.
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Iowa voters are split on control of the Senate: 49% prefer Democratic control and 48% favor Republican. With those numbers nearly matching the Senate matchup, both candidates are performing close to their party’s ceiling.
Turek is preferred by 11 points among women, 16 points in the suburbs, 17 points among voters with a college degree, and 32 points among independents.
Hinson is up by 7 points among men, 6 points among those without a college degree, 14 points among rural voters, and 41 points among White evangelical Christians.
Economic pressure influences the contest. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 3 in 10 Iowans described their families as falling behind financially. That share has risen to 4 in 10 today, and they back Turek by a 38-point margin. Meanwhile, those holding steady (45%) and getting ahead (13%) favor Hinson (by 14 and 53 points respectively).
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In addition, 6 in 10 say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote decision. That outpaces other top issues, like President Donald Trump (43% extremely), immigration (39% extremely), and AI technology (27% extremely).
Turek has the advantage among voters who say the cost of living, Trump, and AI technology are each extremely important to their vote, while voters prioritizing immigration favor Hinson.
Trump won Iowa with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024. Today, that’s how many Iowa voters disapprove of his job performance as president (57%), while far fewer, 42%, approve.
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The president’s ratings are only part of Hinson’s challenge. While 42% view her positively, 50% have an unfavorable view, including nearly 4 in 10 who are “strongly” unfavorable. In contrast, Turek’s ratings are net positive: 48% favorable to 40% unfavorable (24% “strongly” unfavorable).
By a 9-point margin, more voters are concerned Hinson is too close to Trump than are worried Turek’s views are too liberal (52% vs. 43%). Among those “extremely” concerned, that gap widens to 14 points: 36% say Hinson is too tied to Trump, while 22% say Turek is too liberal.
More of Turek’s backers are certain of their choice: 88% are committed to him compared to 77% for Hinson. Twice as many Hinson supporters say they might change their mind (20% vs. 10%).
“Recent history and the state’s partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull this out,” says GOP pollster Daron Shaw, who works on the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “But the warning signs are clear: Iowa Republicans seem ambivalent, independents prefer Turek, and even her supporters say they aren’t sure.”
Iowa hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years (when Sen. Tom Harkin won his final term), and it’s been 20 years since they elected a Democrat as governor.
In the Iowa governor’s contest, Democrat Rob Sand outperforms Republican Zach Lahn among likely voters by 53-44%. The race has been steady since June.
Sand’s lead comes not only from getting the support of nearly all Democrats (97%), but also 14% of Republicans and 66% of independents (vs. 16% of independents for Lahn). Plus, 11% of voters backing Hinson for Senate switched parties to support Sand for governor.
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,204 Iowa registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (183) and cellphones (733) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (288). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,008 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
