The robot finally had a winning week. Unfortunately for the robot, I had a better one.
I went 4-1 in Week 3 and added 3.06 units, bringing my season record to 9-6 and putting me in the black at +2.82 units. GPT managed its first winning card, going 3-2 for a profit of 0.89 units. It is now 5-10 and down 5.61 units through three weeks. Also, I have finished ahead of GPT in units every week.
We also settled our Week 3 disagreement in my favor. I took Pittsburgh getting points against Cincinnati, while GPT laid them with the Bengals and the Steelers won outright. Chalk up a major win for humanity.
We’ve got two more disagreements this week, and I could spoil them right now, but you’ll have to keep reading. This is what’s known in the business as a “tease.”
The rules remain the same. ChatGPT and I each make our five best bets using the same set of odds, and no selection can be priced worse than -120.
Every wager is sized to win one unit, which means a bet at -110 risks 1.10 units to win one, while a bet at +110 risks 0.91 units to win one. Odds were captured Saturday, Oct. 3, at 3 p.m. ET.
Before we get to the Week 4 picks, let’s review last week.
I felt pretty good about this card and most of the picks hit without much sweat. I’m still annoyed that the Bucs played as badly as they did, although I’m going to complain that referees certainly didn’t do them any favors.
I didn’t love the Bills pick and, honestly, they didn’t deserve to cover with five turnovers. But the Chargers are just that bad, I guess. The Jags and Raiders picks look great in hindsight, but I tried to warn GPT about backing the Bengals against the Steelers. The Rams and Broncos combined for 56 points, so that was a complete whiff.
DAN: 9-6, +2.82 units
GPT: 5-10, -5.61 units
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
A week after betting against the Bengals (and winning), I’m going to flip the script and back Cincinnati. This game perfectly fits my NFL gambling philosophy: fade what you saw most recently. The Bengals lost to the Steelers and the Jaguars pounded the Patriots. Suddenly, everyone seems all-in on Jacksonville, but I just don’t see it. The Jags are OK, but I still think the Bengals are better and I’m laying less than a field goal for the home squad.
GPT’s analysis:
Getting Cincinnati below a field goal at home is the strongest argument for your pick, and Burrow’s protection gives the Bengals a way to attack Jacksonville’s pass rush. My disagreement comes from Jacksonville’s performance on both sides of the ball, not simply its blowout of New England. Cincinnati’s defensive injuries also concern me, with Kyle Dugger out and Bryan Cook and B.J. Hill questionable. At +125, I prefer Jacksonville’s outright-win potential to laying points with the Bengals.
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Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
OK, hear me out. I know I said I was off the Bucs, like, five days ago. But I reserve the right to change my mind whenever I want. If you don’t like it, read someone else. Just kidding, don’t do that. I need the pageviews. In all seriousness, the Bucs should benefit from playing in the Tampa heat because they can run the ball and the Packers simply can’t. Backing rookie Jalon Daniels in his first NFL start is a risk with Baker Mayfield out, but this bet is more about the ground game than the quarterback. Long, sustained drives will wear out the Green Bay defense in the potentially extreme humidity, and I think Tampa can put a few of those together to keep this game within a field goal.
GPT’s analysis:
Tampa Bay’s running game against Green Bay’s vulnerable front is a reasonable way to keep this close, especially with Bucky Irving cleared to play. My concern remains rookie Jalon Daniels replacing Baker Mayfield, who has been ruled out. Getting even money helps, but a three-point Tampa Bay loss would produce a push. Green Bay’s offensive-line injuries make me reluctant to back the Packers, but Tampa Bay’s quarterback uncertainty keeps the Bucs outside my five.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
I’m not going to pretend that I’m not concerned about Drake Maye. He has looked legitimately BAD at times this season. But I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s looked and he’s due for a bounce-back performance. The Bills are very good, but they haven’t exactly been blowing opponents out this year. In a division matchup where the Pats are a desperate team, I like catching a full touchdown.
GPT’s analysis:
Buffalo’s defense gives New England a route to staying within a touchdown, and the Patriots’ defense is a better argument for this bet than their recent scores might suggest. The concern is the offense: Drake Maye has one touchdown pass and six interceptions, with protection problems around him. At -115, I am paying a meaningful price to count on a rebound. I passed on the Patriots, but Buffalo -7 did not make my card either.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
Dan’s analysis:
I might have to patent the “Dan Z.’s Plug Your Nose and Hit ‘Place Bet’ Bet of the Week.” Wait, that doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, does it? Whatever, it doesn’t matter. I’ve apparently made a habit of giving out at least one bet per week that feels awful to place. First it was the Browns +8 in Week 2, then the Giants -2½ last week. Both covered, so the “plug your nose” picks are 2-0. I don’t think the Vikings are good enough to lay double digits against anyone, and that includes the abysmal Dolphins. Prove me right, Miami.
GPT’s analysis:
Justin Jefferson being ruled out strengthens the argument against asking Minnesota to win by double digits. The problem is whether Miami can produce enough offense without De’Von Achane to stay within the number. At +10, my projected 23-13 Minnesota win would push your bet. I still prefer the under, although a competitive, low-scoring game could reward both selections.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Monday Night Football
Dan’s analysis:
I think people are overrating the Falcons after they rolled over the lowly Packers in primetime and I don’t think people have come around yet on how good this Saints offense has looked. Michael Penix Jr. returned, but he honestly wasn’t that impressive and missed multiple throws. Tyler Shough, on the other hand, has been incredibly impressive. The Saints had a bad loss against the Raiders last week, but they led by 11 in the second half. They also were a two-point conversion away from upsetting the Lions. I just think the Saints are better than the Falcons and they’re barely favored at home. To me, this spread is simply incorrect and should be Saints -3. I’ll happily lay 1½ instead, though.
GPT’s analysis:
Shough’s production and home field give New Orleans a reasonable case, and a two-point Saints victory would cover this spread. I prefer Atlanta’s running game and extra rest, particularly with New Orleans ruling out Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings. Those absences strengthen the matchup for Bijan Robinson and make it harder to pressure Michael Penix Jr. At +115, I would rather back Atlanta to win outright than lay 1½ points with the Saints.
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For full transparency, I used GPT-6 Pro, powered by GPT-6 Astra, and set the thinking effort to Max. Then, I fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Saturday at 3 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:
“Pick your five best bets for Week 4 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game. Before delivering the results, do a fact-check and ensure that everything is correct.”
After nearly 30 minutes of thinking, here’s what it came up with.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
The Giants have gone two games without an offensive touchdown, and Jameis Winston has struggled to sustain their passing game. Losing Brian Burns to a torn ACL further weakens a pass rush that had produced only one sack through three games. That gives Jacoby Brissett a favorable opportunity to move Arizona’s offense. The Cardinals’ own defensive problems are the main risk, but the number matters: a three-point Arizona win is enough to cover.
GPT’s projected score: Cardinals 24, Giants 20
Dan’s analysis:
I don’t have much to say on this game. I didn’t bet it and I won’t spend a lot of time watching it. Good luck, GPT!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Jacksonville’s early efficiency has been strong on both sides, and Trevor Lawrence has seven touchdown passes against two interceptions. Cincinnati’s wins came against Tampa Bay and Houston, both 0-3, before its defense struggled against Pittsburgh. The Bengals’ protection and Joe Burrow’s ability to punish a weak pass rush remain serious concerns. Still, +125 requires an outright win less than half the time to break even. I prefer that return to Jacksonville +2½ at even money.
GPT’s projected score: Jaguars 27, Bengals 24
Dan’s analysis:
Well, since I’m backing the Bengals, I obviously hate this pick. If you want to see why, just read my take from earlier in the article!
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
GPT’s analysis:
Miami’s struggling offense is now without De’Von Achane, while Minnesota has allowed only three offensive touchdowns through three games. The Vikings’ own offense has been inefficient, and Justin Jefferson has now been ruled out with an ankle injury. Minnesota can control this game defensively without producing a large total. Miami’s poor defense and the possibility of defensive or return touchdowns remain the main risks.
GPT’s projected score: Vikings 23, Dolphins 13
Dan’s analysis:
I hope this game goes under because a low-scoring game should give my Dolphins +10 bet a better chance to cash. Good luck, GPT! (And this time I actually mean that.)
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers, Sunday Night Football
GPT’s analysis:
Carolina placed both starting cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, on injured reserve, creating a favorable matchup for Jared Goff and Detroit’s receivers. The Lions’ offensive line also improved with Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller back against the Jets, allowing only two pressures. Carolina has additional offensive injury concerns, although Bryce Young practiced fully. Detroit’s vulnerable defense creates a late-cover risk, but I trust its offense to exploit the depleted secondary and win by more than a field goal.
GPT’s projected score: Lions 31, Panthers 24
Dan’s analysis:
The Lions have been a little too shaky for me to lay more than a field goal on the road, but I don’t really trust the Panthers, either. This game is just a no for me, dawg.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Monday Night Football
GPT’s analysis:
Atlanta gets extra rest after its Thursday win over Green Bay, and Penix’s return improved the offense. Bijan Robinson’s running game faces a Saints defense missing Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings, while Atlanta’s pass rush can challenge an offense that has allowed 10 sacks. Shough’s production and New Orleans’ home field remain concerns. At +115, Atlanta needs to win 46.5% of settled decisions to break even, and I favor the Falcons’ matchup advantages at that payout.
GPT’s projected score: Falcons 24, Saints 23
Dan’s analysis:
Well, since I’m backing the Saints, I obviously hate this pick. If you want to see why, just read my take from earlier in the article! I know I wrote the same thing under the Bengals/Jags bet too, but this article is getting long and I’m getting tired.
OK, that’s it for Week 4! Check back next week to see whether GPT can stack together two straight winning weeks and to see if I can build on a 4-1 card.
