It’s getting ridiculous. Well, it’s past ridiculous.
The SEC, somehow, keeps getting preferential treatment in the AP Top 25 Poll in a way no other conference does. For some reason. And this week’s poll might be the best example yet of how the bias among poll voters continues to impact the college football season.
Let’s look at how the voters handled some of the biggest results of the weekend, compared to how they handled previous results from teams with the wrong patch on the front of their jersey.
To start, we can look at the Texas-Oklahoma game. While the Longhorns outgained the Sooners both in total yardage and yards per play, they were set back by two terrible fourth quarter interceptions from quarterback Arch Manning. Both at the worst possible time. One was returned for a touchdown, and the other effectively allowed Oklahoma to win the game in regulation.
The Sooners were not ranked entering the week, and for good reason. They lost on the road to Michigan, scored just 14 points against New Mexico, and were blown out by Georgia 41-13. They’re not a very good team. Texas may have outplayed them, but the very clear flaws in Manning’s game cost them the result. A neutral site game against a middling unranked team that scored 14 points at home against New Mexico. The punishment for the Longhorns? Dropping from No. 1 to No. 7.
When Ohio State lost as the No. 1 team in the country, on the road to the then-No. 4 Longhorns by one point after a miraculous comeback, they dropped from No. 1 to No. 6. Similar punishments for wildly different “quality” losses.
Then there’s Alabama.
The Crimson Tide lost, at home, to the Georgia Bulldogs in a close game, though the Bulldogs averaged a whopping 7.5 yards per play to just 5.8 for Alabama. Though the Tide were denied a clear and obvious pass interference penalty in the fourth quarter that may have changed the game.
Still, it’s a home loss. Yes, Georgia is good, and yes, the score was close, but poll voters typically punish any team for losing a home game. And remember, Ohio State lost on the road to the presumptive No. 1 team in the country and dropped five spots.
Not Alabama! Remarkably, the Tide didn’t budge, going from No. 6 to…No. 6. After losing. At home. Why even play the games when they don’t matter?
Ole Miss has received some exceptional SEC treatment too. The Rebels resume now looks worse and worse, thanks largely to Florida and LSU’s poor play. The Gators went from the darlings of college football to deservedly unranked in just a few weeks after an embarrassing blowout loss at home to South Carolina. The same Florida team that dominated Ole Miss 52-28, scoring 35 points in the second half. LSU, meanwhile, lost on the road to an unranked Kentucky team, their second of the season.
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So Ole Miss’ big win now looks less impressive, and their loss went from “another quality blowout SEC road loss” to an indefensible blowout against a mediocre team. They entered the week at No. 9 in the AP Poll and after their resume took a huge hit, fell all the way to…No. 9.
What about LSU?
The Tigers spent a small fortune, at least $150 million, on hiring Lane Kiffin and revamping their roster. Thus far, they have an unimpressive 4-2 record to show for it, and with more tough games coming, an 8-4 finish might be the best case scenario. Two losses, no meaningful wins, and the Tigers somehow are still ranked No. 22.
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Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks have a win over a ranked team, No. 19 USC, and their two losses are to No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 12 UCLA. Unranked. In fact, they’re nearly 200 “points” behind the Tigers. Tennessee’s big win this year is losing by three to Texas, yet they’re ahead of other comparable one-loss teams.
Why does this matter? Well, there’s a clear and obvious advantage this list gives the SEC: ranked wins and ranked losses. Tennessee plays Alabama this week, a ridiculous No. 6-No. 14 game. What should be two teams in the No. 10 and No. 20 range now looks much more important. LSU inexplicably staying in the polls at No. 22 allows this weekend’s contest against Mississippi State to be another “ranked” game. Meanwhile, Nebraska, who’s 5-1 with one close home loss to Indiana, is playing Oregon while both are unranked.
The polls determine strength of schedule, instead of more objective measurements, which is then used to inform arguments over the College Football Playoff field. The assumption, as always, is that the SEC has unmatched “depth” because of their brand names, marketing, and home stadiums.
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In reality, SP+, an analytics-based ranking system housed at ESPN that compares teams’ success and efficiency on offense, defense, and special teams, then adjusts for opponent, has seven SEC teams in the top-25, and nine from the Big Ten. In fact, there are six Big 12 teams in the SP+ top-25, should we be talking about the gauntlet of playing in that conference?
Despite years of underperformance in the playoff, poll voters just can’t stop thinking it’s the mid-2010’s and Nick Saban is somehow coaching all 16 SEC teams. It’s time to move on from the marketing and start accepting reality.
