Republicans are trailing Democrats in seven key Senate battlegrounds, including longtime GOP strongholds Texas and Kansas, according to a poll released Sunday, just days before the midterm elections.
The New York Times/Siena poll found Democratic candidates leading in five states currently represented by Republican senators — Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas — while the race in Iowa is virtually tied. In Michigan, the only Democratic-held Senate seat surveyed, the party’s candidate holds a double-digit lead.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said the results suggest Democrats could capture control of the Senate, though he cautioned that several races remain within the poll’s margin of error.
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“While a blue wave and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll’s total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible,” Levy said.
The findings are particularly striking in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1932.
In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
The poll also found former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio, 49% to 44%, while Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, 51% to 45%.
In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%. Iowa is even closer, with Democrat Josh Turek edging Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds the largest lead of the seven Senate races surveyed, leading Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.
The poll also found signs of broader dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and Republicans’ handling of the economy.
Just 38% of likely voters across the seven states approve of Trump’s job performance, according to the Times, despite Trump carrying five of those states by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election.
Democrats hold a nine-point advantage over Republicans on which party voters trust more to address the cost of living, with Democratic Senate candidates leading on the issue in all seven states.
The poll also found Democratic candidates leading among independent voters in every state surveyed.
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Democratic candidates improved their standing in six of the seven states compared with Times/Siena polls conducted in September. Alaska was the lone exception.
Still, the poll offered some encouraging signs for Republicans.
Voters who made their decisions within the past month favored Republican candidates by nine points, and several races remain within the margin of error.
The Times also noted that polling underestimated Collins in 2020, when she trailed in every survey before winning re-election comfortably.
Democrats must defend their existing Senate seats and flip at least four Republican-held seats to capture control of the chamber.
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The surveys of likely voters were conducted from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1, with state-level margins of sampling error ranging from plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in Texas to 5 percentage points in Alaska.
