PROGRAMMING ALERT: Watch Trey Gowdy discuss this topic and more on “Sunday Night in America with Trey Gowdy” on Nov. 8 at 9 pm ET.
Losing is the toughest teacher; so tough, you only want to take the class once. For Republicans, Tuesday night was excruciating. Yes, history said, “Be prepared for losses.” Yes, the mood of the voters was anger and uncertainty. But I did not talk to anyone who was prepared for what happened, either in terms of the sheer loss or the margin of the loss.
Senate candidates in red states lost by unheard-of numbers. Long-serving and hard-working Republican House members like Virginia Foxx, Mike Turner and Richard Hudson were caught up in the tidal wave. South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas and Ohio are red states in most presidential cycles. Not last Tuesday night. It was as thorough a whipping as I can recall in my lifetime. So why? What are the lessons to be learned, and what are the cautions for the Democrats? As it turns out, there are parallels between the two.
How do you go from winning the Electoral College and the popular vote in a presidential race and being trusted with the gift to govern to historic losses in a relatively short period of time? President Trump did so and easily could claim a “mandate” on certain issues when he was victorious in November 2024. People want a secure border. People want violent offenders deported without delay. People want a rational immigration policy that rewards the right people and is rooted in fundamental humanity. By humanity, I mean showing dignity to those women and men who have been cutting the lawns, cleaning the hotel rooms and working in service industries while also abiding by our criminal laws. By humanity, I mean protecting American citizens from violent criminals – legally here or otherwise.
President Trump’s first DHS secretary wrote last Tuesday night, “We lost because we were ‘too successful.’” It is that type of thinking that turns a one-cycle loss into decades of minority status. When people voted for border security, they were not including glitzy, self-serving ad campaigns focused on boosting personal political ambitions. When people chose Donald Trump in 2024, they gave not one thought to the possibility that Americans would be shot in cars or on the street and labeled domestic terrorists before even an initial investigation was conducted. It is absurd to assert Republicans lost in South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina and Michigan because “we were too successful.” Losing can teach you. But only if you bother to show up for class.
Every win is not a mandate. Every mandate is not a license to do whatever you want, regardless of the issue. President Trump was elected in 2024 because he promised to make life more affordable and safer for hard-working Americans who need not worry about the California billionaire tax. They are simply trying to raise families and meet their societal and familial obligations. There was not even a whiff in the 2024 exit polls about voters clamoring for those in government to engage in more self-enrichment, pursue naked personal political ambition, or use public office for anything other than true public service.
The forensic pathologists were up early Wednesday morning performing their autopsies. Some blamed the war in Iran for being deeply unpopular. Good. War should be unpopular and rarely waged. But being unpopular and being incorrect are two different things. There was no war with Iran. There were nights of strikes, a heroic pilot rescue, and blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. American service members lost their lives as a direct consequence of Iranian action, but that has been the case for decades. Iran has been killing Americans and giving aid and comfort to those who do so for nearly 50 years. That is precisely why the president insisted, “No more” and “No nuclear Iran.”
People can take whatever position they like on those issues, and reasonable minds can differ even within the same political party. But let us not forget that Iran has been a global pariah for nearly half a century, and I have yet to meet the person (outside of a few terrorist groups) who thinks it is a good idea for theocratic despots to have nuclear weapons.
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What is just as plausible is that voters got vertigo from all the fits and starts. War was on and then off. There was peace but then missiles. There was an MOU that took longer to draft than it lasted in effect. Was it possible Americans needed to be convinced that all other means of reining Iran in had been explored and exhausted?
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What is just as plausible is that the American people coveted a deeper explanation of why engagement with Iran was necessary now. Perhaps Iran was a drag on the election, but not nearly as much as perceived corruption, higher gas prices, and a sense that no one was listening.
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And that leads to the cautionary tale for Democrats. Winning does not equal a mandate. Sometimes it simply means voters hated you slightly less than the other team. With the right candidates, South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and Georgia can easily be red again.
Failing to heed the lessons of why you lost, casting blame in all the wrong places, and not engaging in serious self-reflection will most likely prolong that color change.
