A partial government shutdown is all but certain after Senate Democrats rejected attempts to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) offered by Republicans on Thursday afternoon.
But it will not look like the record-long 43-day full shutdown that paralyzed Congress last year, nor will it look like the shorter four-day partial shutdown that hit Capitol Hill earlier this month. That’s because Congress has already funded roughly 97% of the government through the end of fiscal year (FY) 2026 on Sept. 30.
When the clock strikes 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 14, just DHS will be affected by a lapse in its federal funding. While it’s a vastly smaller scale than other recent fiscal fights, it will still have an impact on a broad range of issues given DHS’s wide jurisdiction.
SCHUMER, DEMS CHOOSE PARTIAL SHUTDOWN AS NEGOTIATIONS HIT IMPASSE
Disruptions to the TSA, whose agents are responsible for security checks at nearly 440 airports across the country, could perhaps be the most impactful part of the partial shutdown to Americans’ everyday lives.
Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill told lawmakers at a hearing on Wednesday that around 95% of TSA employees — roughly 61,000 people — are deemed essential and will be forced to work without pay in the event of a shutdown.
McNeill said many TSA agents were still recovering from the effects of the recent 43-day shutdown. “We heard reports of officers sleeping in their cars at airports to save money on gas, selling their blood and plasma, and taking on second jobs to make ends meet,” she said.
TSA paychecks due to be issued on March 3 could see agents getting reduced pay depending on the length of the shutdown. Agents would not be at risk of missing a full paycheck until March 17.
If that happens, however, Americans could see delays or even cancellations at the country’s busiest airports as TSA agents are forced to call out of work and get second jobs to make ends meet.
SHUTDOWN CLOCK TICKS AS SCHUMER, DEMOCRATS DIG IN ON DHS FUNDING DEMANDS
The U.S. Coast Guard is the only branch of the armed forces under DHS rather than the Department of War, and as such would likely see reduced operations during a shutdown.
That includes a pause in training for pilots, air crews and boat crews until funding is restarted.
Admiral Thomas Allan, Coast Guard Vice Commandant, warned lawmakers that it would have to “suspend all missions, except those for national security or the protection of life and property.”
A lapse in its funding would also result in suspended pay for 56,000 active duty, reserve, and civilian personnel, which Allan warned would negatively affect morale and recruitment efforts.
The U.S. Secret Service (USSS), which is critical to protecting the president and key members of the administration, is also under DHS’s purview.
While its core functions would be largely unaffected by a shutdown, some 94% of the roughly 8,000 people the service employs would be forced to work without pay until the standoff is resolved.
Deputy USSS Director Matthew Quinn also warned that a shutdown could also hurt the progress being made to improve the service in the wake of the July 2024 assassination attempt against President Donald Trump.
“The assassination attempt on President Trump’s life brought forward hard truths for our agency and critical areas for improvement — air, space, security, communications and IT infrastructure, hiring and retention training, overarching technological improvements,” Quinn said. “We are today on the cusp of implementing generational change for our organization. A shutdown halts our reforms and undermines the momentum that we, including all of you, have worked so hard to build together.”
ICE operations would largely go on unimpeded during a shutdown, despite Democrats’ outrage at the agency being the main driver of the current standoff.
Nearly 20,000 of ICE’s roughly 21,000 employees are deemed “essential” and therefore must work without pay, according to DHS shutdown guidance issued in September 2025.
But even though it’s the center of Democrats’ funding protest, ICE has already received an injection of some $75 billion over the course of four years from Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). It means many of its core functions retain some level of funding even during a shutdown.
CISA is responsible for defending critical U.S. sectors like transportation, healthcare, and energy from foreign and domestic threats.
The agency would be forced to reduce operations to an active threat mitigation status and activities “essential to protecting and protecting life and property,” according to Acting CISA Director Madhu Gottumukkala.
That means a shutdown would significantly reduce CISA’s capacity to proactively monitor for potential threats from foreign adversaries.
“We will be on the defensive, reactive as opposed to being proactive, and strategic in terms of how we will be able to combat those adversaries,” Gottumukkala said.
Operations like “cyber response, security assessments, stakeholder engagements, training, exercises, and special event planning” would all be impacted, he said.
FEMA, one of the largest recipients of congressional funding under DHS, would also likely see reduced operations if a shutdown went on for long enough.
The bright spot for the agency is that past congressional appropriations have left its Disaster Relief Fund (DRF), the main coffer used to respond to natural disasters throughout the U.S., with roughly $7 billion.
The DRF could become a serious problem if the DHS shutdown goes on for more than a month, however, or in the event of an unforeseen “catastrophic disaster,” an official warned.
FEMA is also currently working through a backlog of responses to past natural disasters, progress that Associate Administrator of the Office of Response and Recovery Gregg Phillips said could be interrupted during a shutdown.
“In the 45 days I’ve been here…we have spent $3 billion in 45 days on 5,000 projects,” Phillips said. “We’re going as fast as we can. We’re committed to reducing the backlog. I can’t go any faster than we actually are. And if this lapses, that’s going to stop.”
