We now face a defining question: not whether this conflict is difficult, but whether the West has the discipline to see it through to the right outcome.
That is the backdrop to this weekend’s negotiations in Islamabad, where Pakistan is hosting U.S.-Iran talks amid a fragile ceasefire and continued tension around the Strait of Hormuz.
The talks will reveal whether Tehran is prepared to retreat from confrontation or is merely maneuvering for time.
WHY TRUMP, IRAN SEEM LIGHT-YEARS APART ON ANY POSSIBLE DEAL TO END THE WAR
One thing President Trump should do immediately is announce that we, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will be working together to build pipelines at warp speed that will bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Incisive energy and technology expert Mark P. Mills pushes this idea in an article that can be found on city-journal.org, noting that such pipelines could be built in a matter of months.
As for wondering what Iran’s actual motives are, this is a phony question. After 47 years of its existence, we should already know the answer: this murdering, terror regime is implacably wedded to its ugly, radical, deformed version of Islam. It is disgustingly corrupt, which makes its pious posturing even more nauseating. But make no mistake, it is not wavering in its goal to impose its ugly ideology on the Arab Middle East, to eradicate Israel and, ultimately, to bend the U.S. and Europe to its will. It all sounds utterly delusional, which leads all too many people to think that at heart, these are people who can’t really be that perverse and that they can be coaxed into practical agreements that would so obviously benefit Iran materially.
Surely, this delusional reasoning goes, after the massive pounding Iran has undergone and after the elimination of virtually its entire top echelon of leaders, surviving officials must realize the error of the regime’s ways and see the light of cutting a deal with the U.S. You can just see our negotiators imploring the mullahs to imagine all those new hotel towers Teheran can have and perhaps the tolls (to be shared with us) the government can collect from ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz if the regime gives over all its enriched uranium, foreswears any nuclear ambitions, cuts off aid to its terrorist proxies like Hezbollah, and promises never again to manufacture ever-deadlier drones and missiles with ever-longer ranges. And maybe, as a bonus, Iran will get a special, low rate on tariffs!
Happy days are here again!
IRAN’S REMAINING WEAPONS: HOW TEHRAN CAN STILL DISRUPT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Dream on.
These leopards are not changing their stripes. They smell victory. Despite the military hammering, they think they have a powerful trump card with the ability to shut off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Other aces they believe they hold is the ability to seriously damage oil facilities in neighboring countries, thanks to the precision targeting intelligence provided by Russia and China. They know the administration’s huge sensitivities to higher gasoline prices with the upcoming midterm elections. They’re well aware of Asia’s enormous dependence on oil that must go through the Strait of Hormuz for delivery and how shortages and high prices resulting from the war are hitting their economies. And they are gleefully aware of the unpopularity of the war in many European countries.
Whatever happens this weekend and whatever President Trump may threaten, Tehran is convinced that its regime will survive. Survival would be seen as an enormous victory given the magnitude of the air attacks from the U.S. and Israel. Regime survival will be regarded by the rest of the world as a huge, historic, strategic defeat for the U.S. Our credibility will be blown to smithereens, with deadly future consequences with China, Russia and North Korea.
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The West has too often blurred reality: Iran’s ruling theocracy is not simply another hostile regime. Its ambitions are frightening for the existence of the civilized world. This is no moment for illusions. Iran’s rulers have long benefited from the West’s preference for delay, ambiguity, and half-measures. Ceasefires can quiet headlines. Diplomatic communiqués can create the appearance of progress. Limited understanding can buy time. But none of that changes the underlying truth: a pause that leaves Tehran with meaningful leverage is not a settlement. It is a reprieve. Big trouble will be coming, the likes of which the world hasn’t seen since the 1930s lead-up to WWII.
Given the magnitude of the stakes involved, the future course is clear for the U.S. Give up the fantasy that Iran is ready to surrender on the essentials. We must gird ourselves to resume hostilities. Let the Pentagon and Israel complete hitting intended targets, which may take several more weeks. Cut off Iran’s oil shipments to the rest of the world, which primarily means China. And build those pipelines!
Looming defeat can still be turned into a resounding victory for the Free World.
