We write this recently returned from Doha, Qatar, where the background sounds of air raid sirens warning of incoming Iranian missiles have thankfully gone quiet. Civilians are no longer being told to take shelter, and Qatar Airways believes the airspace is now safe enough to resume commercial flights.
As Operation Epic Fury moved into its second month, critics reached consensus: Israel and the United States blundered themselves into a war of choice that has caused unnecessary deaths and spiraling oil prices, all against the prospect of yet another deadly American quagmire like Vietnam and Afghanistan. Despite the emerging media narrative back home, in the Gulf we can see that the U.S.-Israeli military strategy worked.
The critics are right that the nation was not adequately prepared for this. Unlike the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury were never clearly communicated, neither to the American people nor our allies.
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Nevertheless, Operation Epic Fury, although uneven and far from perfect, was a success.
From a military standpoint, Iran’s arsenal of ballistic missiles has been greatly depleted. More than 8,000 Iranian military targets have been decimated. Much of its nuclear infrastructure and air defenses, its navy and command architecture, all lay in ruins.
While the Iranian regime is fragile but intact, even the harshest critics of Operation Epic Fury must acknowledge that it has been significantly weakened, and that the near 50-year Iranian reign of terror has been greatly diminished.
We also saw the precision and skill of our armed forces as they snuck into Iran under cover of darkness to successfully rescue a weapons system officer who evaded capture for nearly 48 hours after his plane was shot down. With the pilot of that plane having been rescued quickly, the operation ensured that both crew members of that flight made it out of Iran safely.
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Yet by the same token, the war was costly — and not just in terms of precious human lives and property. America’s advanced air and missile defense systems, essential to our seeing the full battlefield space and taking out enemy threats, have likewise been depleted or damaged. Given that this shield is literally the only thing between us and enemy missiles, U.S. decision-makers should consider several lessons learned in the first month of this conflict.
First, the U.S. and its allies are burning through our inventory of interceptors at an unsustainable rate. Given that drones and missiles are clearly our adversaries’ weapons of choice, the U.S. has exhausted hundreds of interceptors in the last year alone in Ukraine and the Middle East. Even if the U.S. stepped up production, our military will still not have the luxury of an unlimited magazine, which means we are going to need to maximize our interceptor inventory in the short-term.
Second, fratricide continues to be a devastating reality. In early March, Central Command confirmed that three U.S. F-15 fighters were inadvertently shot down. Kuwaiti forces mistook the U.S. jets as incoming Iranian missiles during a barrage of fire, though fortunately all U.S. service members survived.
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Third, this friendly-fire incident underscores that both the U.S. and our allies still need a much more complete and instantaneous view of the battle space. While the focus on foreign military sales has largely been focused on bombs and defensive interceptors, establishing a shared view of the battlefield must remain an investment priority.
These lessons point to the importance of modern command-and-control systems and their growing role in modern combat. Simply put, more offensive fires, interceptors, and sensors are insufficient if there is not a way to integrate them across services and domains and with allies.
Maj. Gen. Frank Lozano, Army program executive officer for missiles and space, has laid out the appropriate vision, saying, “The ability to leverage multiple sensors on the battlefield, have that data fused and managed … and then simultaneously being able to ensure that the right effector is applied against the appropriate threat, in a relevant, meaningful timeframe, is key to what we’re trying to achieve across the globe.”
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In recent years, the U.S. Army has made significant progress on this vision with its highly successful and currently fielded Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS). Known as a “plug-and-fight” network, IBCS replaces eight different anti-ballistic missile defense command systems and links radars across thousands of miles to shoot down short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, including those being used by Iran. Getting more IBCS units into the field should be an imperative for the Department of War.
In addition, the Army is rightly pursuing IBCS modernization that will ensure the system can be rapidly moved and/or reconfigured before the enemy can turn it into a target. From both a strategic and operational viewpoints, IBCS makes the American war effort as efficient as possible and directly addresses interceptor scarcity. This while giving the warfighter greater decision time and larger defended area to protect troops and critical military assets.
Iran is proving that agility, the ability to be rapidly mobile, will become increasingly critical in today’s warfare. An expensive sitting missile defense system has been a prime target for our enemies, so future modernizations must focus on being adaptive. With the Army’s backing, current contractors can continually advance such technology quickly. Deployment speed and limiting technical risk are key to our defense on the battlefield, especially given the urgent capabilities needs in the Middle East.
Finally, for our joint defense over the long haul, however, our allies must make similar investments in allied systems like the Patriot and IBCS. This way, our allies in the Middle East, like the UAE, become a force multiplier, making our common defense more efficient and effective. This also directly addresses the priority of greatly reducing incidents of friendly fire for U.S. and coalition forces.
A good model is Poland’s Wisla medium-range defense system, the underpinning of its military modernization. The Wisla system integrates Patriot radars and launchers with the advanced command and control capabilities of the American IBCS system, giving Poland a 360-degree defense capability against cruise missiles, aircraft and tactical ballistic missiles.
Given the lessons learned from the Iran conflict, it is clear we need a Wisla-like system in Qatar and the other Gulf states. Lives, including our own, literally depend on it.
Mark Pfeifle is the former deputy National Security Advisor for strategic communications and global outreach in the George W. Bush White House.
