With the NBA and NHL playoffs going on, it is easy to forget that the baseball season is here.
I don’t know about you, but I try to pay attention to everything as a sports bettor. You kind of have to if you’re going to find angles. This is also a good time because there can be some soft lines due to the books focusing on other things, like the NFL Draft and the Playoffs. I think I’ve found a spot for us to take advantage of as the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Detroit Tigers in the second game of a three-game set.
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The Brewers come into this game with a winning record at 13-9. I don’t know that we should consider that much of a surprise, given the fact that the team has basically been a winner for years now. Even when they lose big names or key players, the team finds a way to win.
Actually, the most shocking thing about this season so far isn’t that the Brewers have a winning record; it is that they are currently in 4th place of the division, as every team has a winning record in the National League Central. It won’t stay that way, but it is kind of cool to see. Probably not if you’re a Brewers fan, or a fan of any of the NL Central teams for that matter. Today they send out Chad Patrick to the hill to try and keep their winning ways. Patrick has been awesome so far, throwing to a 0.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 19 innings.
The biggest concern, if you’re a Brewers fan, is that Patrick has been inconsistent with the number of innings pitched. He has gone 4.1, 5, 3, and 6.2. The most pitches he has thrown this season is 86. I assume they are just being cautious with him, but I’m not quite sure. He hasn’t faced the Tigers’ hitters before, so he might have a small edge going into this game. However, teams actually hit him better the first time through the order than the second or third. There really isn’t a ton of data to support the theory either way, though.
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Coming into the year, the American League Central was pretty much a three-horse race, with most people gravitating to the Tigers winning the division.
They had an epic collapse last year to the Guardians, but still beat Cleveland in the playoffs, and fell just short against the Mariners. Detroit decided to go out and get Framber Valdez to bolster their rotation, but the bigger issue, at least to me, was their hitting. I assume they decided they were just going to try to pick someone up during the season.
Perhaps they don’t really need it. The team is hitting .246 overall with 104 runs scored for the year. That averages out to 4.33 runs per game, which is a solid amount. It hasn’t put them as a winning team, though, as they are just 12-12 coming into this game. The Tigers have been great in Detroit with an 8-2 mark. Tonight, they put Casey Mize on the rubber. Mize has been strong for the Tigers with a 1-1 record, a 2.78 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP.
Although it is just one start, his lone home outing was solid, going 5.2 innings and allowing just one earned run. Brewers hitters haven’t found Mize hard to hit. Overall, they are 7-for-24 against him, but none of those hits have gone for extra bases.
As often as possible, I try to cut the MLB games shorter. I usually find the most success when I focus on starting pitching and try to predict what will happen from there. In this game, I love the under 4.5 runs through five innings. You have two strong hurlers on the mound, and one of them has the advantage of the opponent never facing him. I also like, not nearly as much, the Brewers to win the first five innings. They’ve had success against Mize, but don’t seem to cash in on it. Give me the under 4.5 through five innings.
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