We had three games in the NBA last night, and one was a close-out game.
The Oklahoma City Thunder made light work of the Suns (although Phoenix did barely cover the spread in the game). The Orlando Magic and Detroit Pistons had a great battle, and now Orlando leads the No. 1 seed 3-1 in the series.
The Denver Nuggets dominated and covered against the Minnesota Timberwolves as expected, and most importantly, I was able to cash both of the player props in that one. Tonight, we have a pivotal Game 5 between the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks. Let’s find an angle for this one to make some money via sports betting.
To most casual fans, the Hawks making this a competitive series is probably a surprise. Most of them are probably thinking that Trae Young is on the team. This is no longer Young’s team; this is now Jalen Johnson’s squad. Honestly, it might be C.J. McCollum’s team, but he is a free agent at the end of the season. McCollum has led the team in scoring in three of the four games against the Knicks. Interestingly enough, Johnson, who led the team in points, rebounds, and assists during the regular season, has only led them in the playoffs once in each category.
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How have the Hawks found their success? They’ve managed to keep the Knicks from executing late in games. The margin of victory in both of their victories was just one point. The Knicks even had the ball with a chance to win in both of those games. In the first opportunity, they missed the shot. The second, the Hawks played great defense and kept them from scoring.
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The Knicks love to make things difficult on themselves. Last season, they struggled with the Pistons, and this year, the Hawks seem like they are pushing them. New York has a very strong starting lineup, and they have a deeper bench than last year. However, it seems like they don’t know what they are doing late in games. In fairness, they probably have been the better team in all four games.
New York won the first game by 11 points and really didn’t have much of a struggle in that one. Then in game two, they let a lead slip away as McCollum hit shot after shot down the stretch. Losing that one at home is one they probably should’ve taken. In Game 3, the Knicks outscored the Hawks in two quarters and tied in a third. Last game the offense ran was much more balanced and saw the Knicks win by 16. A lot of the offense went through Karl-Anthony Towns, which apparently wasn’t intentional, but might be now.
I don’t have a ton of faith in the Knicks to go away from Jalen Brunson and let Towns orchestrate the offense. He posted a triple-double in Game 4, dumping passes off to OG Anunoby repeatedly. Anunoby actually led the team in scoring in both games in Atlanta. As I mentioned, Mike Brown, the Knicks head coach, said that it wasn’t really a game plan to let Towns pass from the high post.
In this game, the Hawks will likely change their defensive plan. However, Towns has had four or more assists in three of the four games of this series.
I expect the Knicks to try to give him more opportunities, and even with the Hawks’ adjustments, if he can’t pass the ball as effectively, he should be able to score more. Give me his assist total over 3.5 assists.
I also lean towards the over for the game. I think the defensive adjustments won’t be as effective and will open up more opportunities for other players. Over 214.5 is a strong look here.
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