Forget the small talk, Churchill Downs is officially rocking as we kick off Derby weekend with the 2026 Kentucky Oaks. The Lilies for the Fillies isn’t just a tradition; it’s a high-stakes, Grade 1 showdown.
This is the premier stage for three-year-old fillies. On this Friday, May 1, the energy in Louisville is electric, and the betting windows are already seeing massive volume.
With a loaded field, strong contenders and the spotlight shining bright in Louisville, this race gives bettors one more huge chance to cash before Derby Day takes over the weekend.
2026 KENTUCKY DERBY: POST POSITION DRAW, OPENING MORNING-LINE ODDS
Let’s stop talking and get to the betting window. Here are my picks and exotics for the 2026 Kentucky Oaks.
2026 Kentucky Oaks Day Betting Card
Race 8: Grade 2 Eight Belles, 4:30 p.m. ET post time
Seven-furlong dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $700K purse.
#2 French Fiction (6-1 on the morning-line)
I’m “buying the dip” after she finished fourth by 15 lengths in the G1 Ashland her last time out. But French Fiction is turning back after running a one-and-one-sixteenth-mile race at the Ashland.
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She went off at a shorter price in all three starts (2-0-0) and her two wins at six furlongs had 81 and 84 speed figures. That said, I like the price and French Fiction at a shorter distance.
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Race 9: Grade 2 Alysheba Belles, 5:12 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-sixteenth-mile dirt track for four-year-olds and upward with a $750K purse.
#8 Corporate Power
Finished second his last time out in the Grade 2 New Orleans, but his 106 speed figure is the second-fastest in this race. Mounted by Jose Ortiz, “who was the hottest rider at CD [Churchill Downs] to begin this meet,” per the Daily Racing Form.
Corporate Power’s sire (Curlin) and dam (Road To Victory) both won graded stakes races on the Churchill Downs dirt. He is one of two closers in a race and could capitalize on a pace melt if the early speed horses burn out down the stretch.
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Race 12: Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes, 7:40 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-eighth-mile turf track for 3-year-old fillies with a $600K purse.
#1 Storm’s Wake (6-1)
She beat out two rivals in this field to win the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out. Her 89 speed figure is the fastest in this race and she has won her only race at the Churchill Downs turn. Storm’s Wake is a horse for the course, winning her only race at Churchill last summer.
#8 Lion Lake (8-1)
She’s run faster in all six races (2-1-2). Lion Lake’s 88 speed figure in a blanket-finish third in the Grade 2 Appalachian her last time out is tied for the second-fastest figure in this race. Before that, she won the Grade 3 Here Comes The Bride at Gulfstream in February.
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Race 13: Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, 8:40 p.m. ET post time
One-and-one-eighth-mile dirt track for 3-year-old fillies with a $1.5 million purse.
#1 Explora (6-1)
This filly has finished first or second in her seven career starts. There is a lot of speed in this race, but Explora has the fastest “early speed”. Drawing the rail in the Oaks could help control the pace and get out to an early lead.
Explora’s jockey, Flavien Prat, is one of the best in the world, and she posted a career-best 88 speed figure in her win at the Grade 3 Honeybee her last time out. I like the #9 to eventually run her down, but I’m using Explora in my exotics and multi-race wagers.
#4 Counting Stars (8-1)
She might not be a popular bet because her rivals have better connections and jockeys. But Counting Stars has “tactical speed,” meaning there isn’t much of a difference between her early and late speeds, so she could win the Oaks regardless of the pace (theoretically).
Her 92 speed figure in a win at the Grade 2 Fantasy her last time out is the fastest speed in this field. Counting Stars has gone off as the favorite in three of her last four starts and outran her 11-1 odds in a second in the Grade 3 Honeybee. She won in her only visit to Churchill Downs.
#9 Always a Runner (10-1)
Experience, or lack thereof, is Always a Runner’s biggest question mark. Otherwise, she has the talent to win the Oaks. She ran an 89 speed figure in a win at the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct her last time out, which is the fourth-fastest race from any horse in this field.
Plus, we know she can handle the distance, as the Gazelle was also one-and-one-eighth miles. Lastly, Always a Runner has a better closing kick than any of her rivals in the Oaks, and if there is a “pace melt,” I like her chances of running past the field on the home stretch.
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