The second round of the 2026 NBA PLAYOFFS starts Monday with two games that weirdly overlap. Thank God for YouTube TV’s controllable multi-view feature.
Nonetheless, I’m here to handicap Game 1 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals.
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Minnesota was 2-1 straight up and against the spread vs. San Antonio during the regular season, and the total was 2-1 to the Over.
But, due to load management and tanking, you have to take the regular season with a grain of salt when betting on the playoffs. With that in mind, I’m fading the regular-season results in the Timberwolves-Spurs series opener.
Let me explain why this series could turn into a rock-fight. First of all, San Antonio ranked third in defensive efficiency during the regular season and Minnesota ranked eighth. Again, the regular season isn’t the end-all, be-all, but this matches the eye test.
Furthermore, the average pace for the three Timberwolves-Spurs games was 96.0 possessions per 48 minutes. For context, 99.4 was the average pace during the NBA regular season. The average pace for the 2026 NBA Playoffs is 95.5. So, if those averages hold up, we’re looking at a roughly 92.1 Pace for this series.
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These teams will have to hit mad 3-pointers and/or get to the foul line often for the Over to cash. Well, the T-Wolves allowed the fewest made 3-pointers per game during the regular season and the Spurs led the NBA in defensive FT/FGA rate.
Minnesota All-Star SG Anthony Edwards was upgraded to “questionable” for Game 1. Personally, I think that’s more likely to be a “smokescreen” and we don’t see Ant-Man until this series heads to Minneapolis for Game 3.
Plus, T-Wolves SG Donte DiVincenzo is out for the season and breakout combo guard Ayo Dosunmu missed their close-out win vs. the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the first round and is “questionable” for Monday. DiVincenzo and Dosunmu are great shooters and their absence hurts Minnesota’s floor spacing.
Yet, the Timberwolves went from +14.5 underdogs on the opener down to +12.5 after the Edwards injury news, so maybe he does play Monday. Regardless, even if Edwards does, San Antonio is the second-toughest defense to play in your first game back from injury, besides the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Spurs have long, athletic wings to throw at Edwards, with the greatest defensive basketball player ever, Victor Wembanyama, backing them up. Also, without Ant-Man, the Timberwolves will probably run their offense mostly through PF Julius Randle in Game 1, and I don’t see that going well for him.
I say that as a New York Knicks fan who absolutely loves Julius. Because he was their best player, Knicks fans held their postseason shortcomings from 2021-24 against him. When, in reality, you’re never a title contender if Randle is your best player. That’s not his fault. That goes on the NYK’s organization.
However, he tends to play too much iso-ball and take guys off the dribble. Because Timberwolves C Rudy Gobert can’t shoot, Wembanyama doesn’t have to leave the paint. Hence, Randle will have to make hard, contested jumpers or score against Wemby inside the paint. Good luck, dude.
Lastly, the Spurs are double-digit favorites, so the market expects a lopsided game, and “blowouts are where Overs go to die”.
Teams play with less urgency in blowouts and there is no reason to foul down 10+ points in the final minutes. The Under cashed in four of the five games in the San Antonio vs. Portland Trail Blazers series, and the Spurs were double-digit favorites in three of those Unders.
Prediction: Spurs 113, Timberwolves 98
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