I’m running it back and betting on boring when the Minnesota Timberwolves (1-1) at the San Antonio Spurs (1-1) for Game 3 of the 2026 Western Conference Semifinals Friday at the Target Center.
Betting the Under 218 in Spurs-Timberwolves Game 1 was a rocking chair cover for me as the T-Wolves stole the series opener 104-102. In fact, the final score made Game 1 seem higher-scoring than it was because there were 65 points scored in the fourth quarter.
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But, I’m utilizing the zig-zag theory, an NBA postseason handicapping strategy where you fade the results of the previous game in a playoff series. Game 2 soared over its 216.5 total when San Antonio beat the brakes off Minnesota 133-95.
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Maybe the offenses hit their stride at the end of Game 1 and I’m stepping in it here. However, there is usually value in the Unders since people like betting Overs because points are exciting and no one wants to watch a boring game.
Officiating tends to zig-zag in the NBA playoffs, not just teams, and there were a combined 64 free throws in Game 2. These teams averaged a combined 49.9 free throws per game during the regular season and San Antonio led the NBA in defensive FT/FGA rate.
That said, if the refs “let them play” Friday, there should be fewer free-throw attempts.
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Also, there could be a lot of long possessions. The Spurs were fifth in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) in the regular season and 26th in defensive TOV%. They led the NBA in defensive rebounding rate, so Minnesota won’t score many second-chance points.
Meanwhile, both teams play better defense than offense. The Timberwolves ranked eighth in defensive rating during the regular season and the Spurs ranked third.
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Minnesota’s defense improves at home, too. The T-Wolves are 30-14 to the Under (an NBA-high 68.2%) this season at home with a -6.6 margin vs. the total.
Plus, the pace slows in playoff games after a blowout because the losing team responds by locking in on defense. Since 2021, the total is 46-30-1 to the Under (60.5%) in the game after a 20-plus-point blowout. When the margin is 30+ points, the total is 19-8 to the Under (70.4%).
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Going back to the zig-zag theory, the T-Wolves have to slow down the pace in Game 2. They won Game 1 and the pace was 95.9. The Timberwolves got crushed in Game 2 by 38 points on the pace increased to 107.4.
The bottom line is Minnesota cannot beat San Antonio in a fast-paced game. Instead, the T-Wolves need to grind the Spurs down and win a rock-fight, which is what we’ll see in Game 3
Prediction: Spurs 108, Timberwolves 102
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