In 2016, then-presidential candidate Trump famously asked Black voters, “What do you have to lose?”
Trump challenged African American voters to rethink their long-standing allegiance to the Democratic Party, which, he rightly claimed, took them for granted and had failed to deliver on the most pressing demands of Black families, including providing their kids with a good education.
Steve Hilton, a Republican running for governor of deep blue California, should be posing that same question to Golden State voters.
California is one of the most expensive places to live in the country, largely because of decisions made by Democrats who have controlled the state with a two-thirds supermajority in the Legislature since 2018 and have occupied the governor’s mansion since 2011.
Not only is California unaffordable, but the state also ranks high in homelessness, poverty and illegal immigration, and is bleeding both businesses and residents fed up with high taxes and suffocating regulations.
In a recent CBS News poll, half of California voters said they wanted a candidate who promised “change.” A common-sense, pro-growth candidate, Hilton, a former Fox News host and adviser to the conservative government of David Cameron in the U.K., would not just provide change in the Golden State; he would bring a revolution.
Even some Democrats, like gubernatorial candidate and tech entrepreneur Matt Mahan, are saying the state should change course. Mahan, a Silicon Valley and Harvard graduate who has served for three years as mayor of San Jose, says, “We don’t need MAGA, but we don’t need more of the same,” and has criticized his party on numerous issues, including its handling of homelessness and public safety.
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Primary day in California is June 2. Mail-in voting began Monday. At the moment, Hilton is leading a large field of candidates; as unimaginable as it may seem, the Republican has a shot.
Up until recently, Hilton’s odds were even better because of the way California’s primary election works and because a slew of Democrats were in the running.
The state hosts an open primary, so the top two candidates will face off on Election Day in November, regardless of party. A few weeks ago, Hilton and fellow Republican Chad Bianco, sheriff of Riverside County, were leading the crowded field, with more than eight Democrats splitting their party’s vote. If Hilton and Bianco had finished first and second in the June vote, California would have been on course to elect its first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Democrats were so panicked by that possibility that they frantically called for members of their party to exit the race. When that failed, they appear to have engineered the end of Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s run, and career, by revealing sexual assault accusations that had been circling the congressman for some time. It was a merciless but brilliant move. Swalwell was leading at the time but could have become a political liability if the unsavory allegations had surfaced at a critical time in the campaign.
Also, Swalwell’s exit boosted the campaigns of billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra, a former Biden Cabinet official. Both are now running just behind Hilton. Bianco has dropped to fourth place.
If Hilton squares off against Steyer, Becerra or another Democrat, could he still win? Certainly, it would be an uphill battle. About 46% of California voters are registered Democrats, with the balance roughly split among Republicans, independents and other voters. Also, Hilton has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, whose approval rating in California is below 40%.
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On the other hand, the Democratic field is weak, even by that party’s standards. A recent piece in The New York Times discussed Democrats’ dismay that former Vice President Kamala Harris had not entered the gubernatorial race, with officials conceding that the field is “lackluster.” A year ago, Harris was the favorite contender, according to an Emerson poll, with about 31% of voters and 49% of Democrats backing her run. Instead of jumping into the governor’s race, Harris has been hinting at a third run for the Oval Office.
Tom Steyer, a progressive hedge fund manager, is now running second thanks to his enormous self-financing. CalMatters recently reported that Steyer was “on track to run the most expensive gubernatorial campaign in state history, having already spent more than $132 million.”
With Democrats nationally hewing hard left and adopting a socialist-style anti-wealth platform, Steyer would be an odd choice.
Another contender is Xavier Becerra, a former Democratic congressman and former head of Health and Human Services under Biden, who picked up a lot of the traditional Democratic Swalwell vote.
Hilton brings to the campaign a fresh and common-sense approach to California’s problems. Like most Americans, Californians are struggling with the high cost of living, with 70% in that CBS poll saying it is “unmanageable.” People are discouraged about the state’s economy, with considerable majorities of Republicans and independents, and even 39% of Democrats, describing it as “bad.”
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Climate policies promulgated by Democrats have driven energy costs through the roof. Gasoline in California now costs over $6 per gallon, more than 40% above the national average. Housing is also much more expensive than in the rest of the U.S., thanks to prohibitive environmental rules. Individual income taxes are the highest in the nation, while the state is tied with Delaware for the highest unemployment.
Hilton says he will end California’s “war on business,” cut taxes and rein in the state’s ever-expanding spending. He is also demanding better schools, posting on his website: “Only 35 percent of K-12 students meet state math standards, and only 47 percent meet state English language standards.”
Hilton has struck a nerve; his campaign has the highest number of individual donors, and he has traveled the state hosting boisterous and enthusiastic rallies. He could deliver what California voters want: change.
What do they have to lose?
