Time to lock in. For me, the NFL season officially begins after its schedule release show.
Because, honestly, betting on regular-season baseball sucks, the NBA Playoffs don’t have that many games going on right now, and I don’t bet hockey.
Instead, I just do deep dives into the roster moves, coaching changes and regression metrics to begin investing in NFL futures.
So, in celebration of the NFL’s new fiscal year, here are four teams I’m buying stock in or shorting this season.
This is an easy fade candidate after winning the NFC South last season with a losing record (8-9), going 7-3 in one-score games, which usually regress year over year (see the Kansas City Chiefs’ record in one-score games in 2024 and 2025) and has the third-toughest schedule this season.
Plus, every year, five teams that made the playoffs the previous year don’t return to the postseason.
However, the Panthers made two huge additions to their defense, including LB Devin Lloyd and pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips, who were Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) fourth- and 15th-ranked free agents. Lloyd was a second-team All-Pro last season and PFF’s third-best linebacker in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins traded Phillips to the Eagles before Week 10 last season, and he made a big impact on Philadelphia’s defense. From Weeks 1-9, the Eagles ranked 17th in defensive EPA/play, per RBSDM.com. After acquiring Phillips, Philly’s defensive EPA/play went to seventh from Weeks 10-18.
More importantly, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and I’m a believer in Panthers QB Bryce Young as a franchise quarterback worthy of a second contract.
Young was third in fourth-quarter comebacks last season and second in game-winning drives, which is the essence of playing quarterback.
Carolina’s offensive line is solid at every position and WR Tetairoa McMillan won the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Between their defensive additions and my hunch that Young will improve, I’ll take the PANTHERS to win the NFC South (+310) again, which is the softest division in the NFL.
I might have to eat crow if the Broncos make the playoffs again this season, but I refuse to believe QB Bo Nix, who fractured his ankle in Denver’s win over the Buffalo Bills in the 2026 AFC Wild Card Round, is a franchise guy.
Frankly, I could just be a hater and stuck on my pre-draft analysis of him because what I wrote about Young’s fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last season applies to Nix.
Regardless, I’m holding the line with my Nix instinct because I just feel like his success is a combo of dumb luck, his surrounding talent and Denver head coach Sean Payton’s smoke-and-mirrors offensive scheme.
The Broncos traded for WR Jaylen Waddle this offseason, but he is more of a No. 2 guy than a game-breaker and wide receivers are overrated in terms of impacting wins and losses.
Meanwhile, they have a ton of signs pointing toward regression this season, such as its first-place schedule (11th-easiest), above-average injury luck (eighth in “adjusted games lost to injury,” per FTN Fantasy), and going an unsustainable 11-2 in one-score games.
Denver’s first six games are brutal, too. The Broncos play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 1, the reigning AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, the Super Bowl 2027 betting favorite Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, at the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5 and the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in Week 5.
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Furthermore, the AFC West has two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers, both of whom have better odds of winning the division, conference and Lombardi Trophy.
Since team win total bets don’t usually come down to a half-game, there is value in their alternate win totals, Under and Over, aka “playing the longtail”.
And I don’t like laying -110 or worse for a future. Hence, I’m betting BRONCOS UNDER 7.5 ALTERNATE WINS (+280) at DraftKings with the notion that they face-plant this season and Nix gets exposed.
The Titans are +320 to make the playoffs at DraftKings and the Over for their 8.5-alternate win total is +250, which isn’t that much lower. There’s a solid chance they win 9+ games and don’t make the playoffs.
Also, if Tennessee wins what I think will be a competitive AFC South this season, between the Titans, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, Saleh’s odds to be the NFL Coach of the Year will close lower than +1000 and the Titans are just +800 to win the division.
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That said, I endorse them hiring Saleh to be their head coach, and I like their core: Saleh, first-year offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, QB Cam Ward.
It didn’t work for Saleh when he was the New York Jets’ head coach from 2021 to Week 5 of 2024. I’m not holding that against him, though, because the Jets are cursed. If you don’t believe me, ask any NYJ fan; they’ll tell you.
Anyway, Saleh is a good defensive coach and that side of the ball wasn’t the problem while he was their head coach. His downfall with the Jets was that the organization couldn’t find a quarterback.
But Saleh doesn’t have an excuse with the Titans. Ward is his franchise quarterback and Daboll, who also had a bad quarterback in New York, with the Giants.
Yet, Daboll won the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year award and at least had a small part in developing Josh Allen when he was the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coordinator from 2018-21. Together, Saleh and Daboll could work.
The biggest question is, “How good is Ward?” Well, I’m a shareholder in “Ward as a franchise quarterback” and I’ll buy more of his stock if you’re selling. Ward has 90% arm strength; he’s athletic enough to play the position in 2026, makes throws on the run and plays with his legs.
By drafting Carnell Tate fourth in the NFL Draft last month, the Titans are at least trying to get Ward a No. 1 wide receiver. And they signed a solid slot receiver, Wan’Dale Robinson, in free agency.
In fact, Tennessee spent the most in free agency this offseason, so Daboll and Saleh got to build a roster that fits their systems.
If Ward is who I think he is, Saleh makes their defense league average and Daboll returns to being a good offensive coordinator, the Titans can overperform their betting odds this season.
For the record, I’m betting three-fourths of a unit on Tennessee’s alternate win total and the other quarter-unit on Saleh winning NFL Coach of the Year.
I’m buying stock in the Vikings signing QB Kyler Murray on a team-friendly deal this offseason after he pretty much busted as the first pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Murray has something to prove and could get a raise if he has a solid year in Minnesota this season. Sam Darnold is an example of a castoff quarterback who had something to prove and did so with the Vikings.
With that in mind, this is a great second chance for Murray, who has a higher ceiling and floor than QB J.J. McCarthy. Murray has made the playoffs once and two Pro Bowl teams. He is one of the elusive runners in football and has a cannon.
Whereas the Vikings immediately regretted choosing McCarthy over Darnold last offseason. McCarthy was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last year and Darnold won a Super Bowl. That’s a tough look and it effectively got their now-former general, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, fired at the end of last season.
Nonetheless, Minnesota fourth-year head coach Kevin O’Connell can build a winning team around Murray as his quarterback. O’Connell has a 43-25 career record with 13- and 14-win seasons with Darnold and Kirk Cousins and won the 2024 NFL Coach of the Year award.
The Vikings have one of the best pass-catching crews in the NFL, featuring a top-five game-breaker in the business, Justin Jefferson, WRs Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings and TE T.J. Hockenson.
Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in football and will get another NFL head-coaching job.
My biggest concern is the division. The NFC North is the most competitive division in the league and all four teams could win it.
The bottom line is that, considering their talent and coaching staff, the Vikings could be the NFL’s “worst to first” team this season and their +550 odds to win the NFC North should be closer to +400.
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