Week two of the college football season delivered another series of typically chaotic results. And the College Football Playoff picture has already shifted, thanks to several surprising outcomes.
The Oregon Ducks were expected to compete for a Big Ten Championship with the Ohio State Buckeyes and Indiana Hoosiers, only to barely escape against Boise State and get deservedly beaten by Oklahoma State. The Cowboys’ in-state rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners, lost on the road at Michigan, scoring just 10 points in the process.
Those Wolverines, left for dead after the asterisk-laden win over Western Michigan in week one, are suddenly right back in the playoff picture after beating a top-11 SEC opponent. And of course, the Texas Longhorns won the game of the year over Ohio State, giving them a huge resume boost and a substantial leg up should they need an at-large playoff berth.
This week’s AP Top 25 Poll reflects some of that chaos, while also providing a good example of the flaws with the “some wins are better than some losses” perspective shared by such figures as Nick Saban.
Here are this week’s rankings, and what it means for the rest of the season.
One of the obvious takeaways? No matter what fans, coaches, or commentators say, it’s clear that winning and losing is still king. Even when “strength of schedule” is taken into account.
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Oklahoma dropped a whopping 13 spots after losing to Michigan, getting no credit for scheduling a top-20 caliber opponent in a home-and-home series. BYU, meanwhile, jumped a whopping four spots, leapfrogging some teams, after a 28-17 win over Arizona in Provo.
Indiana also moved up after beating up on Howard, as did Miami after a 77-7 win over hapless Florida A&M. Why did those teams move up? Because Ohio State fell a remarkable five spots after a one-point loss on the road to Texas in a game in which they had a 20-point lead and were a missed field goal away from cruising home with a win.
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And therein lies the problem. The Buckeyes did what everyone says they want college football teams to do, scheduled a top-tier opponent in an on-campus series. On the field they lost, but as the postgame win expectancy and expected score indicated, it was effectively an evenly matched game. Per ESPN’s SP+, the Longhorns had 50.2% win expectancy, Ohio State, 49.8%. Adjusted scoring margin was 0.0. It’s almost impossible to play a more evenly matched game than that.
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Their reward? Falling five spots, behind Indiana and Miami that played overmatched FCS teams. In a world where schedule and resume matters, Ohio State should be no worse than second. They played the now No. 1 team in the country and came as close as you can to winning without winning. Why did they drop at all? It’s not as if their win over Ball State wasn’t impressive, or that we’ve learned something about Georgia after the Bulldogs played Tennessee State and Western Kentucky.
Human beings, no matter what they say or claim, will always evaluate based on results. It’s too much to ask for them to move teams up or down based on other factors. So the Buckeyes and Sooners drop, and playing an FCS team is rewarded.
At the end of the day and season, week two of the AP Poll doesn’t matter much. But it’s indicative of the mindset that the playoff selection committee has and will have. It’s not just wins and losses, it’s how you play against the competition you face.
As for Oregon, they have the schedule and talent to fight their way back into playoff contention, but their margin for error is now gone. After Portland State, they travel to USC, and still have Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington later in the season. The Ducks better kick things into high gear sooner rather than later, or by the end of September they could be on the outside of the top 25 looking in.
