Four weeks into the NFL season, which is still considered the quarter point, most sportsbooks have established six true Super Bowl contenders.
The following teams are priced shorter than +1000 at most books: the Rams, Bills, 49ers, Ravens, Seahawks, and Chiefs. They are also generally in that order.
The Jaguars, Bears, and Bengals headline the next tier, with odds typically ranging from +1500 to +2000.
The board has shifted considerably since Week 1. Buffalo has nearly caught Los Angeles as the Super Bowl favorite. San Francisco and Kansas City have surged past several teams. Meanwhile, the Patriots, Chargers, Eagles, and Lions have fallen outside the top 10. The 0-4 Chargers have cratered to +10000.
There is plenty to debate with the individual prices. The broader hierarchy, however, looks about right.
The Rams haven’t been the juggernaut some expected. However, Myles Garrett, Puka Nacua, and Aaron Donald have yet to share the field. Even at 2-2, Los Angeles has the NFL’s most talented roster.
Buffalo isn’t far behind. Sunday’s disappointing loss to New England aside, this could be the deepest team of the Josh Allen era. Tight end Dalton Kincaid, edge Greg Rousseau, and second-year defensive tackle Deon Wallers have each ascended to status among the best at their positions.
First-year head coach Joe Brady is an upgrade in Buffalo.
At +58, the 49ers own the NFL’s best point differential. Their championship outlook is less complicated than most: if they can stay reasonably healthy, they are good enough to win the Super Bowl.
Unfortunately, reasonable health has eluded San Francisco for most of the past two seasons. Nick Bosa’s injury is now the most consequential concern.
The 4-0 Chiefs have returned to a familiar formula: winning games in the final seconds without looking particularly impressive in doing so,
There is plenty to like. Kenneth Walker has been the NFL’s best running back, leading the league in rushing by more than 110 yards. Rookies Mansoor Delane, R Mason Thomas, and Emmett Johnson have already made an impact and should only improve. Kansas City is also undefeated without starting left tackle Josh Simmons playing a snap.
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There are equally legitimate concerns. No one knows whether Simmons will play at all this season. Tyquan Thornton, who had developed into Mahomes’ most explosive receiver, could miss the rest of the year with a fractured ankle. Most troubling, the defense has gone three consecutive games without recording a sack.
No contender has a wider range of plausible outcomes than Kansas City. The Chiefs could enter January as the Super Bowl favorite. They could just as easily discover that their young roster is still a year or two away.
Baltimore is perhaps the most flawed team in the top six.
Without a last-minute collapse by Dallas, the Ravens would be 2-2 and facing familiar questions about their ability to finish close games. Lamar Jackson remains too erratic as a passer for a quarterback of his stature, and Baltimore’s offensive line is one of the weaker units among AFC contenders.
Granted, it helps that Zay Flowers has developed into one of football’s most dynamic offensive weapons.
The Seahawks receive surprisingly little attention for a defending Super Bowl champion. The defense is still excellent. Sam Darnold is getting healthier. The coaching staff is among the league’s best. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a mismatch against every opposing defense.
Seattle’s path could ultimately hinge on the outcome of the NFC West. The Seahawks are considerably more dangerous at home than on the road, a distinction that becomes magnified in January.
That makes Sunday’s game against San Francisco one of the most consequential matchups of the young season.
In any event, losing Kenneth Walker in free agency will likely prevent Seattle from reaching the dominance it achieved last season. Fortunately, the Seahawks don’t need to be as good as last year to still rank among the best teams in the league.
Finally, do not dismiss Chicago.
The Bears have won three games with three different quarterbacks this year, an achievement that speaks as much to Ben Johnson as it does to the roster. Johnson is one of the few coaches capable of materially raising a team’s ceiling.
Like last season, we’d give the Bears a puncher’s chance in a playoff matchup against any of the top three NFC West squads.
Through Week 4, we’d break down the Super Bowl picture this way:
Center of the bubble: Rams, Bills, 49ers
Inside the bubble: Chiefs, Seahawks, Ravens
Just outside the bubble: Bears
Within distance of the bubble: Jaguars, Broncos, Bengals
