“They’re ruining baseball.”
“They’ve built a superteam.”
“They’re unbeatable.”
“Too many fans and teams have no hope of their team reaching or winning the World Series.”
“Lock ’em out.”
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With some varying degree of consistency, all of these statements have become oft-repeated campaign phrases from either Major League Baseball itself or many of the league’s fans. Mostly as a result of the Los Angeles Dodgers winning back-to-back World Series titles and continuing to add expensive players to their roster, despite the success.
For much of the 2026 season, off-field discussion and PR efforts centered on the league’s owners demanding a salary cap in upcoming labor negotiations, as a direct result of the Dodgers’ spending. Curiously, few of these proponents ever mention the New York Mets and their spending. Interestingly, the Mets missing the postseason for two consecutive seasons despite a top-2 payroll never seems to come up. Nor the Giants and Angels futility, despite their big markets and payrolls.
But beyond the labor discussion is the on-field results. Yes, the Dodgers have won the World Series in two straight years. And yes, there’s still every opportunity for them to win a third title in 2026. The issue? Sunday night’s game two of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves showed why there’s no such thing as a foregone conclusion in baseball. Why it’s not possible to “ruin” the most unpredictable sport in the country. And why assembling even the best roster guarantees nothing.
The Dodgers won game one in mostly ho-hum fashion, with Tarik Skubal going six strong innings and Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, and Max Muncy hitting home runs to win 5-3. When the Braves announced that superstar starter Chris Sale would be held back for game three, the widespread expectation was that the Dodgers had a tremendous advantage for game two.
Blake Snell, a two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, was set up to start for LA. Atlanta? They countered with little-used reliever Ray Kerr. Kerr didn’t pitch in the majors in 2025, had a 5.64 ERA in 2024, and has such poor “stuff” that he struck out just 11 hitters in 18.1 innings in the regular season.
Game over, right? Of course not. The Dodgers missed every opportunity against the Atlanta bullpen, made several uncharacteristic mistakes, and lost game two 3-2 to even the series at one apiece.
Kerr went 3.1 scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in a decisive game three of the wild card series. He followed that up by going 2.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in a pivotal Game 2 of the NLDS. Because of course he did.
Outsider observers might point to Kerr’s 1.47 ERA in his regular season sample as evidence that his postseason performance is justified. Except the underlying stats show how fortunate he was to have those results. Kerr’s BABIP allowed, or batting average on balls in play, was .143 in the regular season. The league average is around .300. In 2024, his BABIP allowed was .403, demonstrating that there’s no secret formula Kerr is using to over-perform. And it’s not just BABIP.
The league’s average left on base percentage is around 75%, essentially, when baserunners reach against a pitcher, league average is that 75% of those runners won’t score. Kerr’s LOB% this year? 98%. Put simply, that’s absurdly “lucky” and will regress to the mean over a broader sample.
But that highlights the problem with trying to “predict” postseason baseball: over a small sample size, like a single series, or even a few series, a pitcher like Ray Kerr can throw six shutout innings against two of the best lineups in baseball. Sure enough, thus far in October, Kerr’s BABIP allowed is .200 and his LOB% is 100%. Over an entire season, those numbers will not continue. It’s impossible. But in a playoff series? In any series? It’s not impossible or even improbable.
The gaps between players in baseball are so small that on any given day, Ray Kerr can outpitch Blake Snell, who was mostly ineffective, over a few inning sample. Or Didier Fuentes, a good but inexperienced relief pitcher, can go 3.2 innings and allow just one run while retiring nine straight Dodger hitters.
Suddenly, the unbeatable Dodgers dynasty is in serious trouble. It’s one game, though, you might be thinking. And of course that’s right; LA is still favored, slightly, to win the series. But Atlanta can now start Chris Sale on regular rest in game three, at home, not long after he threw a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers at Truist Park with 11 strikeouts and just five baserunners allowed.
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It’s a new game, it’s the playoffs, each start is independent of the last, but even with Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting for Los Angeles, the Braves likely have the advantage to win game three. Suddenly, what looked like a foregone conclusion could turn into a 2-1 Braves series lead by Tuesday night. And therein lies the problem.
If your offense has an off night in a best-of-5, your season can end in a hurry. If your left fielder misplays a routine pop-up, like Teoscar Hernandez did on Sunday, your season can end in a hurry. If your relief pitcher throws a wild pitch after your defense allowed a gift triple, your season can end in a hurry.
In LA’s case, it’s not just Sale, it’s that their best hitter, Shohei Ohtani, clearly isn’t healthy. Ohtani, though he has two singles in the NLDS, has not looked anything like the dominant force he often was in the 2025 playoffs.
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In his first at bat, Ohtani struck out on four pitches from Kerr, only one of which was even remotely close to the strike zone. In his second at bat, he popped up with one out and runners on first and second, getting seven pitches, six of which missed the zone. In his final at bat, he once again struck out despite seeing just one pitch in the zone. The strike-out pitch nearly bounced off the plate.
When Ohtani is limited, the Dodger lineup looks a lot more beatable. And boy is he limited.
It’s not to say that the Dodgers are done, that a 1–1 series when LA still has Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and a second start from Skubal available to them is over. But it shows just how fragile the “superteam” moniker actually is in October. It’s not just them.
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The New York Yankees tied for second in runs scored in the American League this season. In game one, they were dominated by Drew Rasmussen to the tune of one hit. One hit in which the runner was thrown out at third base. From what was supposed to be an even series, to the Rays becoming big favorites to advance in just one game, because a good pitcher had his best stuff.
Again, it always seems so obvious. The best team wins, because that’s what happens in the NFL. The superstar hitters win out. But that’s ignorant of actual history, when players like Eddie Rosario and his .560 NLCS batting average in 2021, carry teams to the World Series. Or Steve Pearce won 2018 World Series MVP after hitting three home runs and driving in eight runs in five games. Or Mitch Moreland hits a gigantic late-inning homer in game four of a World Series game to make that series 3-1 instead of 2-2.
Baseball isn’t predictable. Which is what makes it so great. Hopefully everyone involved remembers that in a few months instead of canceling the season for nothing.
