Unless we’re in for a surprise, polling suggests Republicans are on track to lose the House and possibly the Senate this November. The question is no longer whether Democrats will gain ground, but how big the blue wave will be. The battle for Congress has drawn plenty of attention and will continue to as we inch closer to Election Day.
What’s flying under the radar is that Republicans could lose not only Congress but their grip on governors’ mansions, as well. As former Republican Governors Association Chair Chris Christie told Politico, “for the first time in 15 years, we could be in a position to lose a majority of the governorships.”
That loss would be an even bigger blow than losing Congress. Losing the House and the Senate to the Left is nothing to take lightly, especially if some of those candidates are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. But losing the states would be more consequential for Americans.
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Governors rarely dominate the national news cycle, but few elected officials have more influence over the lives of American families.
They oversee everything from education to public safety to infrastructure, and many control their state’s budget — setting spending priorities and deciding which programs receive funding. Working with their legislatures, they set the agenda on the issues that touch individuals most directly.
While Congress is inert, ineffective and operating from the Imperial City, a governor shapes policies that reach into communities and neighborhoods.
Right now, Republicans hold 26 governorships to Democrats’ 24. The GOP has held that majority since 2011. But it may slip away come November.
Democrats’ momentum began last fall when Abigail Spanberger flipped Virginia’s governorship and Mikie Sherrill held New Jersey for her party. Just look at what Spanberger has advanced in Virginia with less than a year in office. She has revived DEI policies, backed an effort to bypass the bipartisan redistricting commission that the state Supreme Court ultimately struck down and raised the minimum wage, making it harder for small businesses to keep up with rising costs.
Thirty-six states will choose a governor on November 3, with Republicans and Democrats each defending 18 seats. Of the 14 states not holding elections, Democrats hold six and Republicans hold eight.
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According to the Cook Political Report, 13 of this year’s races are solidly Democratic, including a few incumbents who’ve got their eyes on 2028 presidential aspirations: Illinois’ JB Pritzker, Maryland’s Wes Moore and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro.
Arizona, Oregon, Michigan and, most troubling for Republicans, Iowa, all lean Democratic. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two decades, but that could change this year as polls show gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand leading his Republican opponent Zach Lahn. Republicans’ best pickup opportunity is Kansas, where Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited.
Then there are the five toss-ups: Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. Four of them are Republican-held, leaving Wisconsin as the only one Democrats are defending. If Democrats just net two seats, they take the majority.
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These races are more than a scorecard of red versus blue. They’ll decide which party’s approach to governing shapes daily life in three dozen states for the next four years.
What’s more, the states and the governors who lead them serve as the last line of defense against an overreaching federal government. Democratic Socialists already have their eyes on 2028, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez increasingly talked about as a potential presidential contender. In the face of threats emanating from DC, governors could be the ones standing between a socialist agenda and the rest of the country. Americans should keep that in mind as they cast their votes for governor this fall.
