One of President Donald Trump’s most prominent allies in Congress could soon become his highest-ranking defender against a barrage of Democrat-led investigations and impeachment threats.
Several House Republicans told Fox News Digital they expect the chamber will slide out of their control come November — and with it, a major shake-up in their top leadership ranks.
“I don’t see a scenario where everyone gets to keep their job,” one House GOP lawmaker bluntly told Fox News Digital. “I think [Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.] would be first out, and then [House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.] has got to decide if he’s going to run for leader and, can he beat [House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio]?”
Jordan and Scalise’s names came up often, in Fox News Digital’s discussions with various House Republicans, all of whom spoke under the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conference matters.
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A second House Republican said Jordan is the “number one name” in talks of a GOP minority leader.
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The Ohio Republican already enjoys high name recognition among the party base. As the first lawmaker put it, “His celebrity status is very helpful … when Jim Jordan comes to town for you, you put 300 butts in seats.”
That status has been on full display so far this election cycle. Jordan has spent much of August and October traveling across the country campaigning for fellow House Republicans along the political spectrum, from vulnerable moderates to conservative MAGA acolytes.
It’s a far cry from the Jordan who ran for speaker in October 2023, when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster sparked a historic scramble to replace him. Jordan’s bid at the time was marked by fervent conservative support and fierce opposition from moderates, several of whom said they felt threatened by Jordan’s allies for their opposition.
The first House Republican described his current persona as “Jim Jordan 2.0.”
“He’s taken steps to, I think, build out way beyond the Freedom Caucus in terms of people that support him,” that person said. “Like, he’s just a great citizen of the conference.”
But Jordan himself has not publicly pushed any leadership ambitions since the 2023 battle, when Johnson ended up speaker after several weeks of political chaos. The second House Republican said they’ve seen Jordan actively dismiss any such conversations.
He told Punchbowl News earlier this week that he was “focused on winning” the House majority.
The first person said, “I think [Jordan] quietly, without campaigning for it, has built up some infrastructure like that. But also, he could be throwing darts at leadership, and he’s not. He’s just trying to help us win.”
A third House Republican pointed out that, if Democrats win the House in another blue wave, many of Jordan’s most vocal opponents from 2023 will have lost their seats. And unlike a speaker race, where a majority of the full House is needed, a minority leader would only need to win a majority of the GOP conference.
“If we lose 20 or 30 of those guys and all you’re left are guys like me, I think Jim Jordan’s chances are much higher. Because the only people left in the conference are going to be conservative,” the third GOP lawmaker said, adding they would “1,000%” back Jordan.
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But a potential minority leader Jordan would not come without a fight. Most House Republicans are privately expecting Scalise, Johnson’s No. 2 and a member of House GOP leadership since 2014, to run for the job.
“It’s very obvious they’re both jockeying for it,” a fourth House Republican told Fox News Digital. “Jordan’s a pretty big draw for a lot of folks. I think he might have a play there. But there’s a lot of people who are loyal to Steve, especially those that have been around a while.”
Like other members of House GOP leadership, Scalise has also spent recess traveling the country campaigning for Republican candidates. He is also known as a prolific fundraiser for the party.
A fifth GOP lawmaker said, “I would guess, at this point, that Scalise would be in the lead with Jordan running a close second.”
“And I think it would just depend on, you know, who would people see as a better fighter against the Democrats?” the fifth person posed.
A sixth House Republican said a fight between the Louisiana Republican and Jordan seemed on the horizon if Republicans lost, and argued Scalise is best positioned to continue leading if that majority comes back.
“In some respects, Jim Jordan, I think, would make a pretty good minority leader because he’s a bulldog … [but] I’ve never believed that Jim Jordan would be an effective speaker,” that sixth person said. “I think Steve Scalise probably is the best candidate that we have out there that has experience in dealing with the administration, that understands the must-pass portion of our agenda … and is our best negotiator.”
It would likely be a bruising battle, given there’s no love lost between the two men after their competing bids for speaker after McCarthy’s ouster. Scalise had won a majority of Republicans in a head-to-head against Jordan behind closed doors but ultimately did not see a House floor vote. Jordan’s 2023 bid collapsed after he failed to clinch a majority on the House floor.
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But it’s not clear if it may even come to that.
“I think that if Johnson runs for minority leader, he would still get the votes,” the fifth person said. “He’s done everything you could ask of a leader. He’s raised the money, he’s been on the road. He’s cobbled together very difficult votes over the last two years that no one thought possible.”
There is also a world where Republicans defy expectations to keep the House. And in that world, Johnson is all but guaranteed to remain in charge.
“Speaker Mike Johnson is an example of the American Dream. As Speaker, he’s continued to defy the odds with a slim House majority and pass America First-bills,” Trump’s campaign posted on X. “After Republicans win in November, they should re-elect Mike as Speaker quickly!”
If the polls prove correct, however, most people are expecting Johnson to willingly step aside.
“I don’t think he’s going to want to be minority leader after being the Speaker of the House, like, that doesn’t make any sense to me,” the fourth House Republican said.
The third GOP lawmaker was more blunt: “Johnson’s done.”
Johnson himself dismissed any talk of leadership races in an interview with Fox News Digital last month.
“I really haven’t given it a moment’s thought because we’re laser focused,” he said when asked if he would seek to be minority leader. “This is a midterm unlike any other, and I’m convinced we are going to defy history and keep and grow this majority.”
If Johnson’s prediction does not pan out, one member of leadership is expected to have a good shot at staying in his place: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.
Emmer has been privately telling House Republicans that he intends to run for the whip job again no matter what, multiple people told Fox News Digital, avoiding a possible collision course with Jordan and Scalise.
“I think it was a brilliant move, saying, ‘You know what? I’m not going to do anything but try to keep my own spot,’” the first House GOP lawmaker said. “I think Tom’s got pretty wide respect, and most of the hand-wringing from people was, ‘I don’t want to have to pick between Tom and Jim.’”
The fifth person said, “It’s my understanding that Emmer is, if there is a race, going to be happy being the No. 2.”
But nothing is a sure thing in an environment where multiple House Republicans have said they are expecting a “bloodbath” in the midterms.
Three GOP lawmakers told Fox News Digital they expect Democrats to win between 20 and 25 seats — with Republicans’ redistricting efforts sparing them from an even more devastating loss.
A solid defeat, several House Republicans warned, could have people clamoring for a full leadership shake-up.
The second House Republican said the entire leadership team could be “wiped out” in that situation.
“It strikes me that there wouldn’t be a high likelihood of everybody just being OK with the status quo,” the first person said.
In that case, there is another name people see waiting in the wings for a potential leadership bid: Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger, R-Texas.
“I keep hearing rumors but have not heard that directly,” a seventh House Republican said. “My guess is that he is preparing to make a run in case the opportunity presents itself, but he’s being tactically quiet.”
The second House Republican said they heard his name second only to Jordan in terms of frequency.
“When I was a candidate, I had no idea who he was, but he called me and gave money to my campaign,” the first lawmaker said. “He’s very ambitious, but I don’t know what he’s aiming those ambitions towards.”
Several people speculated that he could run for the No. 2 job as whip if Emmer opted to step aside or was forced to.
The fourth House Republican said they could see a world where Pfluger runs to be chairman of the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
“I think that he’s positioned himself very well to be able to be in some sort of leadership position. I think it just depends on what that looks like,” that person said.
But there is one thing Republican lawmakers seem to largely agree on: November is not looking good.
“Everyone that I have talked to across the country is seeing the same numbers that I’m seeing. So if you’re in anything less than an R+6, I think you’re at risk,” the third House Republican said.
The first person said, “There seems to be a lot of panic buttons being pushed.”
