There are two big differences between the previous Trump-era midterms and this year’s contest.
The first is the president’s approval rating, which is lower now than it was during President Donald Trump’s first term in 2018 or President Joe Biden’s term in 2022.
The second is Democrats’ generic ballot lead, which is wider and more enduring than it was in the 2018 “blue wave” election and much larger than the edge the GOP had in 2022.
Combined with Democrats’ candidate quality improvements and a Republican-led redistricting effort that could fall short of expectations, the House is likely out of reach for the GOP this year.
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Then there’s a similarity: in all three elections, the Senate has been in play right up until the finish line.
In Trump’s first term, the Republicans ended up gaining two Senate seats despite a gloomy national environment. Four years ago, with inflation surging, the Democrats managed to add a Senate seat to their tally.
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The Democrats have plentiful paths to 51 seats on election night. Republicans keep plowing money into six toss-up states, plus Kansas, and those efforts haven’t much moved the needle.
Yet the GOP’s paths to 50 are getting wider. That, plus a major update to the House forecast, in this week’s edition of the Power Rankings.
The Democratic Party has enjoyed a lead in the House all year. Now, as another 20 races shift leftward, this forecast sees the Democrats taking control.
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Democrats have an advantage in at least 219 seats, while Republicans should hold on to at least 198 seats. There are 18 toss-ups on the board.
On a good night for the Democrats, the party will hold around 237 seats, or a gain of 22 from their current position. That’s because toss-up seats have mostly fallen in one party’s direction in previous elections.
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(A “great night” for the Democrats, which would see the party take some Lean R seats as well, would mean a Democratic majority of up to 249.)
If the toss-up seats go the other way, the GOP could make life hard for the left. A good night for Republicans would see the party end up with around 216 seats. That’s two short of a majority but also leaves the Democrats with a mere two-vote cushion in the House.
In that scenario, a coalition of far-left Democrats, like the “Squad” of years past, could band together to put policy pressure on the next House speaker. That group is about to get bigger, thanks to the sure-thing victories of Democratic Socialists like Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez.
Some of this week’s shifts are a product of polling. The Democrats’ generic ballot lead has pushed districts like Kentucky’s 6th District (Lexington and its suburbs) and Texas’ 15th District (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) away from the GOP.
The party’s strength in statewide races also plays a role, especially in Iowa (the 1st and 3rd districts, which contain the state’s biggest cities), and in Pennsylvania (three districts have shifted to the left, thanks in part to Governor Josh Shapiro’s coattails).
Other shifts are the result of Republican groups moving resources elsewhere, like from New York’s 19th District. Democratic Rep. Josh Riley lost this race by fewer than 5,000 votes four years ago, but as the GOP sends its money to more winnable races, it’s moving to Solid D.
A more surprising theme is also emerging: the GOP is in trouble with rural voters.
Sitting above Albany, New York’s 21st District contains some of the state’s most rural areas. Its voters delivered President Trump a 21-point victory over Vice President Harris two years ago. A survey last week had the Democratic candidate four points ahead of the Republican, 46%-42%.
Maine’s 2nd District, which famously voted for President Trump three times in a row – and last time by nine points – is an open race this year after Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement. It was thought to be one of the best flip opportunities for the GOP. A new poll has the Democrat at 51% and the Republican at 45%.
Even Virginia’s 5th District, stretching across the Southside region and home to a two-thirds rural population, is a six-point race in a recent survey (45%-51% with the Republican ahead). The Democrat, Tom Perriello, was recently endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Gas, diesel and grocery prices are to blame. In dollar terms, the cost of living is higher in cities and suburbs, but voters across the country keep saying they are feeling the pressure of those increases and blame Republicans for them.
Iowa, for example, has experienced the fourth-highest gas price hike in the nation. Kentucky, Ohio and Texas are all in the top five states for diesel increases. That has proven tough for GOP candidates to counter.
New York’s 21st District moves from Solid R to Likely R. (Virginia’s 5th and Maine’s 2nd districts remain at Lean R and Toss-up, respectively.)
The Senate is still a toss-up with Democrats and Republicans taking 47 seats apiece. Six toss-ups are the most likely to determine control.
If Democrats win all six of those states, the party will take the majority with two seats to spare, for a total of 53. On the other hand, this forecast still sees a pathway for the GOP not to lose any seats. They’d accomplish that just by holding on to the same six states.
The toss-ups have largely been locked in through summer. There’s been a lot more movement in the “lean” categories (Kansas in, Georgia and North Carolina out). Collectively, you can think of these as the election night battlegrounds.
This week, a ninth state joins the list: Minnesota.
The North Star State has been on the political radar since Republicans recruited Michele Tafoya, the former NFL sideline reporter. She has deftly navigated her foray into politics by focusing on fraud, crime, and the cultural issues that animate GOP voters.
She also has a favorable matchup against Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s sitting lieutenant governor. It’s not clear whether Flanagan’s progressive politics or her proximity to the fraud issue is giving voters pause. Whatever the cause, there are signs that they are.
A new gold-standard survey shows 47% of likely voters support Flanagan, while 43% back Tafoya. Another 9% are undecided.
Republicans are fully united behind Tafoya, while 9-in-10 Democrats say they’ll support Flanagan’s bid. Independents are much less settled: 38% back Tafoya, 32% support Flanagan, and 29% haven’t decided.
Minnesota’s voter profile and election history suggest that there are some left-of-center voters in the “independent” column. They may be wavering on Flanagan now, then show up to vote for her on election day.
The Senate hopeful’s spot on the ballot next to Amy Klobuchar, the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate and electoral over-performer, may also help push her over the line.
Either way, that poll can’t be ignored. Minnesota moves from Likely D to Lean D.
