New York Gov. Kathy Hochul expanded her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman to double digits in a new poll showing the Democratic incumbent pulling further ahead in the final days before Election Day.
Hochul leads the Nassau County executive 54% to 40% among likely New York voters, according to a Siena Research Institute survey released Wednesday. The 14-point margin is five points wider than her lead in September, when she led 50% to 41%.
“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement.
The poll also showed Blakeman struggling to establish an advantage in areas where Republicans typically need strong support to compete statewide. The candidates are virtually tied in upstate New York and the downstate suburbs, while Hochul leads independent voters by 11 points.
Republicans generally need strong margins in those regions and among independents to overcome Democrats’ roughly two-to-one voter registration advantage and their dominance in New York City, Greenberg noted.
“But with only a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents,” Greenberg said, noting that Blakeman is “quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing.”
Despite Hochul’s overall advantage, the survey revealed uncertainty among voters over whether either candidate would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers.
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A plurality of voters, 35%, said neither candidate would make life more affordable, compared with 30% who chose Hochul and 27% who selected Blakeman.
Hochul also reached a new milestone in the survey, with 51% of likely voters viewing her favorably compared with 45% who viewed her unfavorably. It marked the first time a majority of voters had viewed her favorably in Siena polling during her five years as governor.
Her job approval rating also rose to 51%, up from 48% in September. Blakeman, meanwhile, received a 39% favorable rating and a 40% unfavorable rating.
The survey found a sizable gender gap, with Hochul leading Blakeman by 23 points among women and six points among men. She also led among Black voters, 81% to 16%, while White voters were closely divided.
The poll also found that 68% of likely voters believed Hochul would win the election, compared with 23% who predicted a Blakeman victory. Among Republicans surveyed, 40% said they expected Hochul to win.
In New York’s other statewide races, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James led Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, while Democratic state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.
The Siena poll was conducted Oct. 19–22 among 807 likely New York voters through telephone and text-to-web surveys. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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Election Day is Nov. 3.
