The “Ruthless Podcast” Fellas have some of the best political insights in the game, and we asked them what they’ll be looking at ahead of Tuesday’s critical midterms.
Control of the House and U.S. Senate are at stake as Democrats try to take back Congress after Republicans swept the White House and both chambers in 2024.
From what polls are or aren’t reliable, to the races sparking the most interest, to what the media continues to get wrong in political coverage, the Fellas have your answers.
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Comfortably Smug
If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?
Maine Senate. Susan Collins has an incredible ability to lose every poll and win every election, thus far. Will she be able to overcome the atmosphere of this election is a huge question. The first thing I check when polls close is early exits, which I find to be the most reliable and illuminating data on election night.
What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?
EARLY EXIT numbers are the most trustworthy! Dems always talk about a red mirage followed by a blue wave on election nights. If early exits don’t go Republicans’ way, it will be a bad night.
What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?
The media is overhyping Barack Obama as a candidate surrogate. He stumped for Hillary [Clinton], he stumped for Kamala [Harris], and they both lost. Obama has no coattails.
Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?
I do not trust any polls. Early exits are the only reliable source of data.
John Ashbrook
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If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?
Ohio Senate. Watch returns in the 50 counties where President Trump outperformed Mitt Romney by 10 or more points.
What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?
[Mike] Rogers’ performance in Oakland County is a number to watch. And also his share of the vote in Michigan’s Seventh Congressional District. He could come out on top if he outperforms his 2024 vote totals in those areas.
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What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?
The media always overhypes late-breaking vibes and underreports multi-year, local level grassroots operations. Good candidates can overperform the environment with competent campaigns.
Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?
Public polling is often less reliable than professional private surveys based on years of state and local level expertise. So I’m always skeptical of public polling. But the one thing they’ve captured accurately is the difficult environment Republican candidates are currently navigating.
Michael Duncan
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If you could only watch one race on election night, which is it, and what’s the first thing you check when the polls close?
Michigan’s Senate race. First thing we’re checking is Abdul El-Sayed‘s support with Black voters in Wayne County.
What’s the one number you trust more than the polls (early vote, turnout, special election overperformance, fundraising, something else), and what threshold would make you feel good or bad about your side?
Early vote. Banking votes early makes you sweat election night less, and it lets you know where you’re getting enthusiasm.
What is the media overhyping going into the midterms, and what is it ignoring?
The Florida Senate race. Angie Nixon is a DSA loon and every interview she gives is a disaster. The media hasn’t really covered the ranked choice process in Maine and Alaska. It’s possible it could take weeks for us to know who has the Senate Majority.
Which poll, pundit, or conventional wisdom do you not believe, and why?
The pollsters who were off by 10+ points in the Dem primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan and are now publishing general election polls.
